[2026-27 German Bundesliga] Augsburg vs Union Berlin Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 24, 13:30 UTC
Augsburg and Union Berlin meet at WWK Arena on October 24 in the seventh round of the 2026-27 German Bundesliga. There are three points between them, but they have different problems to solve. Augsburg keep scoring but have struggled to protect leads, while Union have tightened up defensively but are yet to score away from home.
1. Match overview and team form
Augsburg have scored 16 goals in six league matches, level with Leverkusen and Leipzig for second in the scoring charts. They have scored at least twice in every game, but their last four brought two draws and two defeats, with 11 goals conceded in that run. Against Leverkusen, Werder Bremen and Bayern Munich, they led 2-1 in the second half but failed to win. Away to Werder, they went 2-0 up, dropped deeper, allowed 20 shots and lost 3-2. In their latest match away to Elversberg, they conceded three goals in the opening 28 minutes: a penalty, a counter shortly after their own corner and a goal from an opposition corner. The issues go beyond late goals. They need to review their game management and set-piece defending too.
Union Berlin have managed only five goals in six matches. They lost 4-0 to Leverkusen and 7-0 to Bayern Munich in their two league away games this season. Both came against top sides, before the defensive starting lineup changed. Even after the Bayern defeat, coach Mauro Lustrinelli stuck with a back four and paired Jena van den Bos with Felix Uduokhai at centre-back. Union then beat Elversberg 1-0 at home and drew 0-0 with Dortmund. This match will be the first test of whether the new defensive partnership can keep its shape away from home.
League standings this season Position and points: Augsburg 10th, 8 points; Union Berlin 17th, 5 points Goals scored and conceded: Augsburg 16-12; Union Berlin 5-17 Last two matches: Augsburg, 1 draw and 1 loss; Union Berlin, 1 win and 1 draw
Manuel Baum’s Augsburg usually line up in a 3-4-2-1. Fabian Rieder links the attack, with two goals and three assists in the league, while Michael Gregoritsch has scored four and Robin Fellhauer three. The goals are spread across the team, and Augsburg look to attack quickly after winning the ball or create chances from set pieces. When they have dropped back after taking the lead, though, they have spent too long defending. After the last match, Baum said the team lacked the consistency to stay solid for the full 90 minutes.
Augsburg right centre-back Noahkai Banks will miss out with a knee ligament injury. Whether Abdulai Juma Bah, who has filled in recently, or Jeffrey Gouweleeuw gets the nod, the back three will not be the same one that started the season together. Attacking midfielder Alexis Claude-Maurice is also unlikely to return in time, though Augsburg scored five goals in the two matches he has missed. Up front, Baum must choose between Gregoritsch and Rodrigo Ribeiro, and has not ruled out starting both.
Union Berlin’s absences affect their attack more directly. Andrej Ilić, who scored twice against Augsburg in May, remains out after appendix surgery. Right-back Josip Juranović, with two assists this season, is a doubt. Kastris Imeri, who took set pieces after the break, felt discomfort and came off at half-time against Dortmund; his availability is uncertain too. If Imeri misses out, Union will need a new set-piece taker and may also have to change the recent midfield pairing of András Schäfer alongside Rani Khedira. Livan Burcu is in contention to start after recovering from illness, while Christopher Trimmel and Schäfer can also take set pieces.
Augsburg have gone unbeaten in their last six home league matches over the past seven months, but that run includes two wins and four draws. They have scored in all six and kept only one clean sheet, against Schalke. Union’s failure to score away this season comes from just two matches. We should look at today’s lineups and approach rather than take either record at face value.
The most recent meeting was a 4-0 Union Berlin home win in May, while the January match in Augsburg ended 1-1. Union had a different coach and defensive setup then, and Ilić, a key figure in the May win, is unavailable this time. The pattern from those games, with Augsburg seeing more of the ball and Union creating chances through direct attacks and set pieces, is worth keeping in mind, but there is little reason to expect the same results to repeat.
Both teams had seven days off after playing on October 17. They each have an away DFB-Pokal tie in midweek. Union will travel to Cologne for the cup match, then face the same opponent at home in the league. Lustrinelli said he would take the schedule into account when deciding whether Imeri plays. Augsburg’s midweek opponent is SG Sonnenhof Großaspach.
2. Matchup analysis
Augsburg are likely to have more of the ball early on, with Union sitting in two compact defensive lines. Before the match, Lustrinelli said he was wary of Augsburg’s quick transitions after winning possession. If Union avoid committing too many players forward, they can limit the chances for Augsburg to intercept a pass and attack immediately. The home side will need to create chances against a settled defence instead of relying only on the transition game that has worked best for them this season.
Rieder’s passing and the movement of the players behind him will matter as Augsburg try to play through Union’s defensive lines. If Rieder can find the runners in the space behind Khedira and Schäfer, Augsburg can advance to the area in front of the centre-backs. If Union’s two central midfielders hold their positions, Augsburg may need to work the ball out to their wing-backs for crosses, or recycle it through the middle. Uduokhai and van den Bos helped keep Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy quiet in the last match. Augsburg’s goals, though, do not depend on one striker. If Gregoritsch and Ribeiro start together, the centre-backs may each pick up a forward, leaving a Union midfielder responsible for tracking the second-line runner into the box.
Set pieces offer Augsburg another route to goal. Against Werder Bremen, Calvin Braekelmann headed in from a Claude-Maurice corner. The taker will be different this time, but Rieder and Mert Kömür have also taken corners. Union have Uduokhai, who is strong in the air, so winning corners alone will not guarantee chances. Augsburg need to send several players into the box and attack again if the first delivery is cleared.
Union can threaten without keeping the ball for long. Augsburg conceded against Elversberg from a header off a corner and a counterattack immediately after their own corner. Union’s winner against Elversberg came when Burcu fired low after Trimmel’s corner had been cleared. Tim Skarke also broke through to the goalkeeper in a counter against Dortmund. If Augsburg lose the ball after their right wing-back pushes forward, the replacement at right centre-back will have to deal with runners attacking the space behind. Union did have 11 shots against Dortmund, but none were on target. Creating a counterattacking chance and finishing it are separate challenges.
The first goal could change the roles of both teams. If Augsburg score first, Union will have to push forward to find an equaliser. Against Bayern, Union conceded the opener after advancing, losing the ball and failing to regain their defensive shape. A similar situation could give Rieder and Fellhauer room to join the attack straight after a turnover. But if Augsburg drop deep after taking the lead, as they did against Werder, Union will have more time to win corners and attack from the flanks. Augsburg’s five goals conceded in the final 15 minutes recently make their management of a lead worth watching.
If the score is still 0-0 into the second half, Union can stick with the approach that has worked in their last two home matches. They have one win and one draw in the two league games this season that were 0-0 at half-time. Augsburg had more possession but failed to score in the May meeting. If they again struggle to create enough through the middle, a late set piece could carry more weight. Still, the teams and coaches have changed since that meeting, and Union’s new defensive pairing has yet to play away together.
If Union score first, Augsburg could increase their attacking output as they did in the second half against Elversberg. They recorded 29 shots in that match, but both goals in their comeback were penalties. More attacking volume does not guarantee the same kind of finishing. Union have not yet played an away match with their new defensive pairing after taking the lead either. Whichever side scores first, the response from the team that needs to take control of the ball could decide the match.
3. Prediction and conclusion
Augsburg look more likely to win. Union may limit Augsburg’s fast breaks by sitting deep, but the home side still have set pieces and ways to attack the penalty area. Baum could start Gregoritsch and Ribeiro together, giving Union’s two centre-backs different forwards to deal with. With Ilić out and Juranović and Imeri both doubts, Union may lack the finishing and service needed to make the most of the chances Augsburg allow.
The market sees a good chance of a high-scoring game, based on both teams’ goals for and against this season. But if Union sit deep and keep their shape, Augsburg may not get many opportunities to attack in transition, while Union have limited ways to score repeatedly. Even if Augsburg strike first, we expect the second half to hinge on Union pushing forward and the home side managing their lead, rather than both teams trading attacks from the start.
We predict a 2-1 or 2-0 home win. If Imeri plays and takes the set pieces, while Schäfer and Khedira keep their midfield partnership, we lean towards 2-1, with Union pulling one back late after Augsburg take the lead. If Imeri is out and Augsburg retain possession after going in front, we expect 2-0. This forecast depends on Union’s new defensive pairing keeping its shape through the first half away from home. If that shape breaks down early and Union have to push forward for a long spell, Augsburg could find more chances to counter and the game could produce more goals than expected.
