[2026–27 Bundesliga] Cologne vs Schalke 04: Match Preview Kick-off: October 24, 13:30 UTC
Cologne and Schalke 04 meet at the RheinEnergieStadion on October 24 in the seventh round of the 2026–27 Bundesliga season. They are separated by two points in a matchup between sides near the bottom of the table. Cologne have kept scoring at home, but will be without their first-choice strikers. Schalke 04 have scored only away from home this season, but they also have gaps in attack.
1. Match overview and team form
Cologne have taken seven points from six games, with two wins, one draw and three defeats, scoring eight and conceding 11 to sit 12th. Schalke 04 are 15th on five points after one win, two draws and three defeats, with four goals scored and seven conceded. Cologne are unbeaten in three home league games, scoring six goals, but have lost all three away matches. Schalke 04 have yet to score in three home games, while all four of their goals this season have come away.
Bundesliga this season Position and points: Cologne 12th, 7 / Schalke 04 15th, 5 Goals scored and conceded: Cologne 8 and 11 / Schalke 04 4 and 7 Three home games: Cologne 2 wins, 1 draw, 6 goals scored / Schalke 04 2 draws, 1 defeat, 0 goals scored Three away games: Cologne 3 defeats, 2 goals scored / Schalke 04 1 win, 2 defeats, 4 goals scored
Those records need context. Three of Schalke 04’s four away goals came in one game, against Union Berlin. Cologne’s two home wins were against Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach. Both teams have played only three matches at each venue. The data centre’s expected-goals figures over the last three league games also favor Cologne, at 3.37 to Schalke 04’s 1.55, though Schalke 04 faced three teams from the top half in that stretch. Season totals and recent numbers alone do not tell us how likely Schalke 04 are to score today.
The more important recent change for Cologne is how they have scored. In the season opener against Hoffenheim, they came from behind twice to win 3-2, with Tijs Dallinga finishing twice inside the box. Ragnar Ache’s header was also the equalizer against Hamburg. After both players were sidelined, Cologne beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 at home, with goals from Ísak Jóhannesson and Said El Mala. Cologne had 20 shots, but the winner came from El Mala’s shot from around 18 to 20 metres, which had a 3% chance of going in. Away to Frankfurt next, Marius Bülter had three shots on target but failed to score in a 1-0 defeat. Cologne can still create chances, but other players now have to provide the penalty-box finishing their central strikers supplied.
Schalke 04 held Bayern Munich and Elversberg to goalless draws and won 3-1 away to Union Berlin. They then lost back-to-back games against Freiburg and Mainz. Against Freiburg, they failed to turn a man advantage into another goal even after the opposition were reduced to 10 men in the 64th minute. Against Mainz, they struggled to create chances despite starting Edin Džeko up front. Their seven goals conceded are the fourth fewest in the league, though that record also reflects Loris Karius saving two early one-on-ones against Mainz and making seven saves against Union Berlin.
Absences in attack will shape both teams’ plans. Cologne’s Dallinga is out with a cruciate ligament injury, while Ache is unlikely to feature after only partially rejoining training following a thigh injury. Defensive midfielder Ellyes Skhiri and defender Joel Schmied are also out. Bülter is expected to lead the line in a 4-2-3-1, with Tom Krauss and Jóhannesson in midfield. Schalke 04 will be without captain Kenan Karaman, striker Moussa Sylla, defender Maximilian Wöber and midfielder Ron Schallenberg. Džeko is also a doubt. Reports suggesting Hwang Hee-chan could make his first start since joining the club are predictions, not a confirmed lineup.
The managers have different default setups. Rene Wagner usually uses a 4-2-3-1 at Cologne, but added a defender away to Frankfurt. He has said that his team will press at home and get more players into the box. Miron Muslic has said Schalke 04 will stick with a 3-4-2-1. They have generally looked to disrupt play through duels and attack from set pieces and counterattacks rather than keep the ball for long spells.
Cologne are unbeaten in their last 10 Bundesliga meetings with Schalke 04, and the data centre records three wins and one draw in the last four head-to-heads. But both clubs had different managers and squads when they last met, twice in the 2024–25 season. Linton Maina, who contributed to Cologne’s goals in those games, is expected to feature again. The central strikers who converted his deliveries are no longer in the squad. What matters for this match is how Maina capitalized on moments when Schalke’s defenders were dealing with the ball, more than the previous results themselves.
Both teams have cup and league games next week, but neither manager has said they will rotate for this match. Cologne have had eight days of rest since their last game, Schalke 04 seven. The forecast for kick-off points to 0 mm of rain, with a chance of gusts. Strong winds could affect high crosses and long balls, but do not appear to favor either side.
2. Matchup analysis
The game is likely to hinge on Cologne pushing forward and Schalke 04 defending. Wagner has said his team want to spend long spells in the opposition half at home, while Schalke 04 have the league’s lowest possession rate this season, at 40%. The key is not just how long Cologne have the ball, but whether they can attack before Schalke 04 settle into their defensive shape. Cologne had 18 shots against Hamburg but struggled to get through the defense. By contrast, their winner against Borussia Mönchengladbach came just after the opposition lost the ball in midfield, with El Mala finishing a pass from Maina.
Maina, El Mala and Moore are suited to breaking forward quickly after a turnover. Before Schalke 04 can reorganize, they can run in behind the three-man defense. The picture changes once Schalke 04 have bodies in front of the penalty area. Without Dallinga and Ache, Cologne lack a natural striker to compete for the first ball from crosses. Wagner’s plan to get more players into the box could mean Jóhannesson and the far-side attacking midfielder making runs toward goal. If they push forward, fewer players will be left to defend in midfield when possession is lost.
On Cologne’s left, the duel between El Mala and Schalke 04’s right-sided defenders will matter. El Mala cuts inside from the flank to shoot, and Muslic has said the whole team must work to stop him. Based on the expected lineup, Adrian Gantenbein, Timo Becker and Satoshi Tanaka may all need to guard El Mala’s shooting lane. If Tanaka closes him down, Moore could find space to receive the ball. If Gantenbein moves inside, Cologne left-back Elias Jelert Sosa could advance on the outside. If Schalke 04 keep the gap between their defense and midfield compact, Cologne are more likely to be shooting from outside the box.
On the other flank, Maina will face Robin Gosens. Gosens pushes forward as Schalke 04’s left wing-back and takes their corners. If Maina runs in behind Gosens just after Cologne win the ball, a left-sided center-back may have to cover the flank. When Gosens receives the ball high up, Cologne right-back Julian Sebulonsen will need to stop the cross. Maina played a part in previous meetings through crosses, counterattacks and Schalke’s mistakes in dealing with the ball, so his positioning right after a turnover matters again. The central striker on the end of his passes will be different this time.
Set pieces are Schalke 04’s clearest route to hurting Cologne. Express reported that five of Cologne’s nine league goals conceded by September 19 had come from set pieces. Against Hamburg, Cologne had defenders in the box for a corner but still failed to stop an opposing header. Schalke 04 lead the league with 172 aerial duels won this season. Wöber’s absence reduces their options in the box, but Gosens and Adil Aouchiche can take the kicks, with Nikola Katić, Kurucay and Timo Becker available to challenge in the air. They can also look to react to a loose ball around the edge of the box, as Freiburg did for their equalizer.
Schalke 04 have not been reliable at defending crosses either. Freiburg scored recently after a corner led to a loose ball and a cross, while Mainz got a striker in front of the defense to meet a cross. Cologne have Maina, Sosa and Sebulonsen to deliver. To exploit that weakness, though, Jóhannesson or another attacking midfielder will need to get ahead of a defender and attack the box as the cross arrives, in place of a target striker.
If Hwang Hee-chan starts up front, Schalke 04’s counterattacks could take a different shape. Muslic started Džeko against Mainz because he wanted a target man who could receive and hold up long balls. Hwang is better suited to running in behind the defense. Against Union Berlin, he charged down the right on a counter and set up Wöber’s goal with a cutback. If Cologne push Jóhannesson forward and lose the ball with their defensive line high, Hwang and Junior Adamu could attack the space behind it.
Whether Schalke 04 can repeat those counterattacks is another matter. They have been criticized for taking too long to transition after winning the ball, and Hwang has only appeared as a substitute in the league this season. If Tanaka and Soufian El-Faouzi cannot play the ball forward quickly after a turnover, Hwang’s runs may not lead to chances. Whether he starts, how many minutes he plays and whether Džeko is available will also affect Schalke 04’s approach in the second half.
The teams’ weaknesses could show in different ways after the first goal. Cologne dropped deeper after taking the lead against Werder Bremen and conceded from a corner after an aerial duel. Their 2-1 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach also required a late save from Marvin Schwäbe. If Cologne cannot keep pressing in the opposition half after going ahead, Schalke 04 may win more set pieces. An early goal for Schalke 04 would let them hold their defensive shape, but they would still need to deal with Cologne’s runs into the box, given their recent problems defending crosses. Schalke 04 have yet to come back from a losing position this season, so an opening goal for Cologne would force a bigger change in their attacking approach.
3. Verdict and prediction
Cologne are more likely to press Schalke 04’s first pass early and attack the back three before it gets set, with Maina, Moore and El Mala leading the way. But without Dallinga and Ache, Cologne have fewer ways to add a goal once the opposition settle in front of the box. Schalke 04 have lost a forward who can hold up the ball, but Gosens and Aouchiche’s delivery, along with their center-backs’ aerial ability, gives them a route to target Cologne’s weakness on set pieces. Hwang’s pace could also threaten on the counter, though Schalke 04’s slow transition makes it hard to expect them to create chances that way repeatedly.
The market leans toward the home side, pointing to Cologne’s unbeaten home league run this season, their scoring streak in 13 consecutive league home games in 2026, and their 10-match unbeaten run against Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga. Most of those home goals came when Tijs Dallinga or Ragnar Ache, both out today, were leading the line. The strikers who finished Linton Maina’s passes in the recent head-to-heads are also no longer in Cologne’s attack. Given how Cologne have dropped deeper after taking the lead, we see more scope than the market does for Schalke 04 to equalize from a set piece.
Our score prediction is Cologne 1-1 Schalke 04. Cologne could score first after pressing early and attacking quickly, then allow Schalke 04 back into the game from a set piece if they drop deeper. Even if Schalke 04 score first, Cologne can send Jóhannesson and other attacking midfielders into the box to chase an equalizer from crosses. The draw looks less likely if Cologne keep pressing in the opposition half after the opening goal and limit Schalke 04’s set-piece opportunities.
