Stuttgart's strong start to the league phase was built against Viking and Slovan Bratislava, so the table says little about this meeting. The way Stuttgart concede, through breaks behind their high full-backs and late in games, lines up closely with how Atletico have been winning. Atletico's defence has also been tight for a month. This looks like a match that tilts the longer it goes.
Stuttgart are a possession side with plenty of shots. Stiller runs things from deep, and Undav and Demirovic attack crosses. The problem is what happens behind that. Hoffenheim, Koln and Paderborn all piled up big chance totals against them by breaking into the space the full-backs leave. Stuttgart have also conceded late again and again, around the 67th, 70th, 81st and 88th minutes. In their one home game against a top side, Dortmund, they created very little and lost 1-0.
The key matchup is Stuttgart's advanced full-backs against Giuliano Simeone, Lee and Alvarez running in behind. Hoeness himself named Atletico's transitions as the danger. In midfield, Barrios with Cardoso or Hjulmand will try to screen Stiller. If they do, Stuttgart are left with crosses, which is what happened at Hamburg.
The absences cut both ways. Cuti Romero is a new loss for Atletico, so Hancko gets a fresh partner at centre-back, and that is Stuttgart's best route in the air. Stuttgart's own injury list has been in place for weeks and leaves their starting XI alone. What it removes is their centre-back cover, and that matters most in the last half hour.
I expect Stuttgart to come out hard with the crowd behind them in the first half. If Atletico are still level or ahead around the hour, Simeone can bring on David, Lookman and Hjulmand, who have been deciding Atletico's games late, against a tiring Stuttgart side with nobody left at the back. That late phase is where I see this match being won, and that's why I'm siding with Atletico Madrid to take it.
