This looks like a tight, low-event match in which the first goal carries a lot of weight. Marseille will have the ball, but against organised blocks they have struggled to turn possession into real chances. Sturm sit deep at home, concede very little and look for transitions and set pieces. The long Sturm absence list grabs the headlines, but most of it was already missing from the side that played their last two matches.
The structure: under Ingolitsch, Sturm play without the ball, usually with 35 to 45 percent of possession. They stay compact and go forward fast through Seidl on the left, with Diakite finishing, and they win plenty of corners. At home they have conceded only three goals in their last five matches, and Rennes managed 23 shots there without scoring. Genesio's Marseille keep the ball, but they made very little against Olympiacos at home and had only five shots at Troyes. For a possession side they also give up a lot of shots, around sixteen and a half a match.
The key matchup is Marseille's build-up against Sturm's midfield screen. With Hojbjerg expected on the bench, the Marseille pivot of Abdelli and Nnadi is thin, and Stankovic won fourteen duels in Sturm's last league match. Every ball Sturm win there is a chance to run at a Marseille side that is spread out in possession. Set pieces are Sturm's second route: Marseille lost to Olympiacos from a short corner, and Seidl's crossing is the home side's best weapon.
On the absences: seven of the nine listed Sturm players were already out for the 6-1 against GAK and the trip to Bournemouth, so the outfield group is the same one that produced those numbers. The real change is in goal, where Helac replaces the injured Khudyakov. Marseille are without Cornelius, and Hojbjerg is not expected to start.
How it should flow: Marseille have the territory in the first half and Sturm wait, and in European matches recently both sides have produced very little before the break. If Sturm score first, Marseille have to open up, which is exactly the space Sturm like to attack. If it stays level for long, the pressure stays on the visitors, who have not won any of their last six Europa League away matches.
That's why I'm siding with Sturm Graz not to lose this match at home.
