Two matches where one side's habit lands right on the other side's weak spot. In St. Louis, a man-to-man press meets a Galaxy back line that has been giving away big chances and starting slowly. In Pachuca, a home side that opens up when it has to carry the ball meets a Necaxa defence that has looked looser since its coaching change. Both games should be decided by how the early pressure turns into goals.
St. Louis sit second in the West, unbeaten in seventeen league games, and have scored in each of their last ten, with three or more in seven of them. They win the ball high and attack fast through Navarro, who has five goals in five games since arriving, and Holse. The Galaxy keep the ball for long spells, but across their last eight games with stats they allowed close to eighteen shots and more than two expected goals per game. Vanney himself said his side have to be careful and clean in their build-up against a press like this.
That build-up is the key matchup. Haak, Glesnes and Sergi Roberto have to play through man-to-man pressure without Lozano and Puig, the Galaxy's two best creators, who are both out. Fewer clean outlets means more loose passes in central areas, and that is exactly where St. Louis do their damage. The Galaxy were two down at half-time against Colorado and behind against Minnesota, so slow starts are a real pattern for them.
The Galaxy's answer comes late: Reus and Klauss off the bench have turned games in the final twenty minutes, and St. Louis have let late goals in at Portland and against Toronto. But for that to cost St. Louis the match, the Galaxy need to match a side that scores almost every week, and away from home they have conceded eleven goals in their last five. Galaxy chasing the game also opens space for St. Louis on the counter. That's why I'm backing St. Louis to win this clearly.
In Hidalgo, Pachuca are a different team at home. Away they win with little of the ball. At home they carry the game, and both their chances and their concessions rise, to nearly two expected goals each way per match. They have conceded in all four home games and trailed at half-time in three of them, then scored back every time.
Necaxa have switched to a back four under Reynoso and conceded seven goals in two games, including a 2-4 loss to America after leading 2-0. They have conceded in all of their last ten, but they have also scored in every away game, looking for transitions through González and Carranza. That meets a Pachuca rest-defence that has leaked chances in every home game while the team pushes for goals.
Neither side gains much from a draw, both have been fragile at the back and both keep finding goals. That's why I expect goals at both ends in Hidalgo.
