These two Championship matches are shaped by sides missing what usually carries them. At Bramall Lane, a reactive Sheffield have to take the game to the league's lowest scorers in a wind warning, which points to few clear chances. At Loftus Road, QPR have lost the players who carried the ball and took their penalties, while Swansea's chance-creating machine is intact. In both, the records the market leans on were built by things that will not be on the pitch.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby. Sheffield's recent games have produced goals, but the cause was a red card, late collapses and keeper errors, not volume. Outside those games, both teams' matches sit well below the level of chances that produces many goals. Sheffield average around ten shots and are used to reacting rather than building. Derby have scored only nine in eleven, and their open-play attack is the weakest in the league.
Derby's makeshift back four is not new: almost all of those absences were already missing when the same unit gave Stoke very little six days earlier. Only their captain in midfield is a fresh loss. The likeliest first goal is a Sheffield set piece or second ball, after which Wilder's side tend to protect the box rather than push on. With strong gusts forecast at kickoff, a tight, scrappy game is the expected shape. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match.
QPR vs Swansea. Swansea's lead at the top was built on making chances, not finishing luck. In five of their six wins they clearly out-created the opponent, including away at Derby and Millwall. Their right-back from that run is back, so the shape that won those games returns.
QPR's home record was made by Burrell's goals, Chair's carrying and Madsen's penalties, and all three are out. The XI that remains just lost heavily at Birmingham and has offered almost nothing in the second half of recent away games. Swansea's left-side crosses target a QPR right side missing both regular right-backs.
I expect QPR to start brightly, then Swansea's possession and pressure to tell after the break as QPR's runners tire. That's why I'm siding with Swansea, with the draw covered.
