This top-of-the-table game comes down to one question: can Alvark's drive-and-foul offence work against a defence that hardly fouls? Alvark live at the free-throw line, and Sendai are the stingiest team in my numbers at sending opponents there. Alvark also arrive two days after a night game in Kaohsiung, while Sendai have had five days at home. The likely shape is a close game that turns late.
Alvark's scoring edge is built on free throws. Over their last eight games they drew about 25 attempts a game and allowed about 16. In their wins they got to the line 22 to 34 times. Their two home league losses, to Mikawa and Ibaraki, were exactly the games where that route was cut (12 and 20 attempts).
Sendai's defence is the kind that cuts it. Their last eight opponents averaged under 14 free-throw attempts, and that includes a strong rebounding side like the Sunrockers. Sendai also allowed about 78 points over their last ten, against mid and upper-table teams. Alvark's 95-point attack was mostly built against weaker defences, and against Ibaraki, Mikawa and Tainan it scored 66 to 85.
The key matchups: Jarreau and Keyontae Johnson driving into Sendai's disciplined perimeter, and Rossiter and Alvark's bigs against Sendai's stretch frontcourt of Boothe and Layman. The glass is Alvark's best half of this matchup. At the other end, Sendai fire 30 to 38 threes a game, and Culver creates.
On the lineups, Olbrich is still out for Alvark. Johnson sat out the Kaohsiung game, so he should be fresh. Jarreau and Rossiter carried that game with around 30 minutes each before the flight home. Sendai's full group played their last game.
I expect Alvark to start fast, as their first quarters usually are, and Sendai to stay close as long as they keep Alvark off the line. The swing comes in the third and fourth quarters, when Sendai's three-point volume meets an Alvark rotation on its second game in about 48 hours. At Tainan, Alvark led after three quarters and lost the fourth by 14.
That's why I'm siding with Sendai to win at home.
