This opener is a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals, and both cores are back largely intact. That makes last season's meetings the right guide, not the preseason. In San Antonio those games were not decided by turnovers. They were decided by the glass, the rim and the free-throw line, where the Spurs' size has been the steadier edge.
Look at the series boxes. The possession battle came out roughly even: the Spurs gave the ball away about thirteen times a game and OKC's steals sat around nine, so OKC's usual pressure was not the lever. What split the games in San Antonio was size. In Game 4 the Spurs won the boards 52-47, took 32 free throws to 18 and blocked ten shots. In Game 6 they won the glass 52-42 and the free-throw count 25-12. Both were blowouts.
The key matchup is Wembanyama against Holmgren and Hartenstein at the rim and on the boards. Holmgren is confirmed to play but missed all five preseason games, so he comes into the exact pairing that decides these games without a single run-out. On the other side, Gilgeous-Alexander's drives against Castle and Fox are OKC's main route. When he got to the line 33 times in Game 3, OKC won in San Antonio. In the other two games there, OKC shot 18 and 12 free throws.
OKC's one win in this building also needed a hot shooting night: 17 of 38 from three, against 6 of 33, 10 of 40, 12 of 35 and 14 of 32 in the other boxed games. That template needs OKC well above its own series level from deep.
Tobias Harris is out with a calf strain, but he is a new signing who never played for San Antonio. His absence puts the Spurs back in last season's shape: Fox, Castle and Harper in the backcourt, Vassell on the wing and Wembanyama in the middle. OKC's absentees, Topic, Sorber and Oweh, were not in last season's playoff rotation, so availability is about level.
The likely flow: if Wembanyama owns the glass early, the Spurs' home pattern is a lead that grows through the third quarter. When San Antonio beat this OKC core at home last season, the margins were 10, 21 and 27.
The size pair, the free-throw split and a rusty Holmgren all point the same way. That's why I'm siding with the San Antonio Spurs to win this one by a clear margin.
