Arsenal should spend much of this match attacking Fleetwood's compact defensive shape. The important distinction is between returning the ball to the final third and finding a clean receiver inside the box. Fleetwood have already shown in the cup that they can defend with little possession while retaining a forward outlet.
Against Everton, Arsenal's twenty attempts included ten blocks and only four shots on target. Forest also limited their clean finishing opportunities despite long spells without the ball. The winger and full-back combinations therefore matter most when they move an outside defender and deliver before the central cover resets.
Saka, Saliba and Tzolis remain unavailable, having also missed the Everton squad. Eze and Madueke already provided alternative width in that match, while the exact cup rotation remains an estimate. Fleetwood's reported Cannon return is for a bench role; their demonstrated outlet instead includes Coughlan and McLean, who combined at Exeter.
I expect Arsenal to keep recycling pressure while Fleetwood work to hold their spacing and secure occasional releases. Their Sheffield United cup performance supports that picture of resistance with an outlet. That's why I'm siding with a restrained scoring game between Fleetwood and Arsenal.
