This rematch of last spring's Western Conference Finals comes down to one mechanism: Wembanyama's help at the rim against Gilgeous-Alexander's drives into the paint. That mechanism decided the series, and it is still in place. What has changed sits around it: Oklahoma City get Jalen Williams back and lose Dort, while San Antonio lose a new summer signing who never played in that series.
Both teams were elite last season. The Thunder win by forcing turnovers and by Gilgeous-Alexander getting downhill before the defence sets. The Spurs win by taking away the paint and controlling the glass. When those two styles met in the conference finals, Gilgeous-Alexander shot under 41% from the field, and the Spurs won their home games of the series by big margins.
The key matchup is still SGA against the Spurs' help. With Williams healthy, OKC finally have a second creator to punish that help, and that is the real upgrade on their side. But the Thunder also lost Dort, their main point-of-attack defender, along with Joe and Wiggins from the bench. Holmgren is back, but he played no preseason minutes after his quad injury, so his legs and timing are open questions. OKC's two bigs should win some of the rebounding battle against a smaller Spurs five, and their hands will test a three-guard starting group.
Harris's calf injury moved the market toward OKC. He signed this summer, though, so the Spurs side that beat the Thunder never relied on him. His absence costs depth and size. It does not remove the mechanism that matters. The Spurs' starting five finished the preseason together with two comfortable wins, while OKC played most of their preseason with reserves and have a rebuilt bench.
The first half should belong to the starters. The middle quarters will show whether Holmgren holds up and whether San Antonio's deeper, more settled bench wins its minutes. The finish should be tight, with Gilgeous-Alexander's free-throw drawing as OKC's best late tool.
Put side by side, the step that decided the series is still there, the continuity sits with the home team, and the news that moved the price matters less to this matchup than it looks. That's why I'm siding with San Antonio to win at home.
