Ryukyu and Shiga arrive with identical records, and it is Shiga who sit higher in the table with the far better points difference. The gap the market sees comes mostly from Okinawa and from a lopsided head-to-head built by older rosters. When these two styles meet, Ryukyu's edge is free throws and a small rebounding margin, while Shiga's is the three-point count. Which of those wins out depends on how well Ryukyu's guards hold onto the ball.
Ryukyu are a two-point, free-throw and glass team. Nwaba attacks the rim, Cooley cleans the boards, and Kevin Jones has absorbed the role of the injured Jerrett. They drew around thirty free throws in both meetings this month. The problem is the perimeter: roughly 27% from three across five different opponents, weak sides included, so this isn't one cold night.
Shiga play fast, press, and shoot in volume. They have made 10 to 14 threes a night, and that held up at Kyoto and at Hiroshima, against Tokyo SR, and against Ryukyu themselves. Auguste is their main inside scorer, and Nomoto and You Aizhe run the offence. They do lose the glass to big frontcourts and give up free throws, but against Ryukyu the board gap was only one and six.
The matchup that settles it is Ryukyu's backcourt against Shiga's ball pressure, which produces eight to thirteen steals a game. In Ryukyu's 94-87 win they turned it over ten times and lived at the line. In Shiga's 98-72 win Ryukyu coughed it up nineteen times, Shiga feasted in transition, and Ryukyu went 6 of 32 from deep.
Kawamata's return gives Ryukyu a rebounding big they didn't have in either meeting, and I have counted that. On Shiga's side, all three imports played last time out, the team had a full week of practice, and they report good condition.
I expect a fast game. Ryukyu try to slow it down through drives and second chances, and Shiga live off steals and threes. Both teams have won and lost by wide margins this season, so this one is more likely to swing clearly one way than to be decided by a couple of points.
Put side by side, Ryukyu's possession edge and Shiga's three-point edge are about the same size, and Ryukyu's turnovers have been the tipping point. Most of the gap in the price comes from the venue and the name. That's why I'm siding with Shiga to win this one on the road.
