This one comes down to a home side that can't create at Zubieta meeting a visitor who wants the ball. Real Sociedad B still haven't won at home this season, and they arrive short of bodies after a red-card game, a Friday friendly and a midweek trip to Leicester. Granada's four games without a win look worse than the football they've actually played.
Sanse have been a different team at home and away. On the road they're happy to sit in and break, which is how they won 3-1 at Andorra with only 26% of the ball. At Zubieta that approach has produced almost nothing: one goal in three home league games, and home xG of 0.36, 0.53 and 0.66 in the games with data. Across their recent matches they average around 39% possession.
Granada are the opposite profile. They average about 51% possession and over 16 shots a game. The bad run hides some unlucky nights: against Andorra they had 23 shots to 6 and an xG of 2.09 against 0.90, and still lost 2-3. Pacheta called three of the four recent defeats unjust and singled out Eibar as the one they deserved to lose, which matches the numbers.
The squad news matters too. Kazunari Kita and Arkaitz Mariezkurrena are both suspended after being sent off against Ceuta, and Mariezkurrena is serving a two-game ban. Luken Beitia, Álex Marchal and Iñaki Rúperez may not be available either, after playing in Friday's friendly against Athletic. That comes on top of the Premier League International Cup game at Leicester earlier in the week.
Granada have their own absences, with Kader Bamba and Alejandro Marqués injured and Owen Emeka away with the national team. Their squad has more depth to cover, though, and Pacheta has already said he'll change the XI. They've also won both recent meetings, including a 0-2 at Zubieta in March.
