In both of these matches, the side with the bigger name or home crowd is losing the battle for chances over many games. Manchester United have been out-created in eight straight matches, at home as well as away, and Roma's press is built to attack exactly where United break down. Preston have barely produced an attack in five games under their new coach, while Sheffield United control games and concede very little. In each case the content runs against the home side.
Manchester United against Roma. United's chance totals have been worse than their opponents' at home to Tottenham and Bournemouth and away at Chelsea and Como. The cause repeats itself: without Ugarte there is no holder in midfield, so the ball is lost in their own half, and set-piece marking and individual errors do the rest. Gasperini's man-to-man press goes straight at that phase. Roma's missing players (Svilar, Dybala, Pellegrini, Kone) were already absent in their last three matches, and those produced eleven goals through Wesley's crosses, late runs from Cristante and Mora, and centre-backs at set pieces. United's best route is a turnover or a long ball to Mbeumo and Cunha behind Roma's one-on-one back three, so a draw is a real outcome. That's why I'm siding with Roma to avoid defeat.
Preston against Sheffield United. Graham Alexander has five league games without a win. Preston have had very little of the ball, conceded seventeen to twenty shots in four of those games, and managed no shots on target at Stoke. With McCann and Gibbs injured, nobody in midfield can carry the ball out of Sheffield's press. Wilder's side do not sit off, and they have allowed very little in their last two games. Their away win at Bristol was a controlled one. Kitching's suspension means a new centre-back pairing, and that is Preston's one opening, through set pieces and long balls to Kenny. I expect the Blades to hold territory and get the first goal, which forces Preston to open up. That's why I'm siding with Sheffield United, with the draw protected.
