Two Serie A matches where the numbers on paper look balanced but the matchups underneath are not. At Parma, both sides keep conceding first, but only one of them has an attack that has been producing anything. In Monza, two patched back lines face attacks that have kept finding the net, and neither side has shown a reliable way to protect a lead.
Parma against Udinese is a relegation clash between two bottom-four sides, and the records look equally grim. The difference is who made them. Parma's three games under Gilardino came against Inter, Lazio and Torino, and at home to Torino they out-shot them 25 to 9, with 19 shots inside the box. Udinese lost at home to Lecce as favourites and to Cagliari, and their attack has produced almost nothing for three straight games.
The key matchup is Parma's wing-backs and crosses against Udinese's stand-in back three. Alaba and Solet already missed the Milan game, so the line that gave up a pile of chances there is roughly the one Parma will face, and Zanoli is also doubtful. Udinese have conceded first in four straight league games and from restarts in three straight: two Lecce corners, a quick Milan free kick and a Torino corner rebound. Parma's set pieces and early crosses go straight at that.
If Parma score first, Udinese's chasing mode has been long shots and little else, and Parma can counter into the space Lecce used. Parma's own weakness is real: they have conceded first in every game under Gilardino and finish badly. That makes a draw a live outcome, so I'm protected against it. On the matchup itself, I'm siding with Parma at home.
Monza against Napoli should be a game with goals at both ends. Monza have scored in each of their last ten, including away at Lazio with ten men. They don't need the ball: they broke for four goals against Cagliari with less than half of it, so Napoli's possession becomes Monza's route to goal through Varela and the runners behind him.
Napoli arrive with their third different back line in three games. Buongiorno, Badiashile and Spinazzola are out, Di Lorenzo is expected to rest, and there's a change in goal. Even with a steadier defence they gave up 24 shots to Roma and plenty of chances to Bodo. At the other end, Monza's back three is missing Ziolkowski and Maye. Cagliari and Torino both got plenty of shots against it, and McTominay's late runs into the box plus Politano's delivery are exactly the kind of threat it has struggled with.
Both sides have tended to score after half-time, and the game should open up once Napoli's bench comes on and Monza tire. A one-all is enough for this picture. That's why I'm backing both teams to get on the scoresheet in Monza.
