[26-27 English Premier League] Liverpool vs Arsenal Preview and Analysis Kick-off: November 1, 16:30 UTC
Arsenal’s league-best defensive record faces Liverpool’s quick attack. Both managers have outlined specific ways to disrupt the opposition’s build-up, while the personnel on each side’s right flank remain uncertain.
1. Match overview and team form
Liverpool move forward quickly after winning the ball under manager Andoni Iraola. They beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 despite having just 36% possession. Bradley Barcola capitalised on an opponent’s turnover to set up Alexander Isak’s goal. Isak also pointed to counterattacks after regaining possession as a key part of the win (Liverpool’s official website, October 25). Iraola stressed aerial duels and set pieces against Arsenal, while saying he could not simply use the same approach he had at Bournemouth (Liverpool’s official website, October 30).
Liverpool also need to watch for mistakes at the back. Against Villarreal, Virgil van Dijk’s underhit pass was intercepted and led to a goal. Against Brighton & Hove Albion, an inaccurate pass from Alisson was followed by a shot that hit the post. Liverpool came back through a run down the flank and a set piece against Villarreal, but Iraola pointed out that they conceded again after taking the lead (BBC, October 21). With Jérémy Frimpong and Conor Bradley unavailable, Ronald Araújo is expected to start at right-back. Dominik Szoboszlai and Víctor Muñoz are doubts, and reports say Jérémy Jacquet missed Friday’s group training, so Liverpool’s likely defensive lineup remains unsettled (Liverpool’s official website and This Is Anfield, October 30).
Arsenal are second in the league with 7 wins, 1 loss and 5 goals conceded from 8 matches. Manager Mikel Arteta said his side would cut off the supply to Isak so he could not run into space near goal (Arsenal’s official website, October 30). Arsenal held on to their lead against Everton after an early corner goal, thanks to saves from David Raya and solid defending. Against Bayern Munich, Martin Ødegaard’s long pass set up the opener, but Arsenal also left space behind their defence against Bayern’s long balls and drew the match. Bukayo Saka’s injury and Max Dowman’s suspension leave Arsenal short of right-sided attacking options. Noni Madueke’s availability will depend on how training goes (Arsenal’s official website and Sports Mole, October 30). Both teams rested a number of regulars in midweek cup games, so the one-day difference in rest alone tells us little about how they will perform.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is between each side’s high press and the passes that follow it. Arteta said both teams press aggressively high up the pitch (Arsenal’s official website, October 30). Liverpool have given the ball away in dangerous areas, and Arsenal also had a weak backpass from Benjamin White intercepted against Everton. If Liverpool play through the press, they can look for direct passes to Isak and link-up play from Florian Wirtz. Arsenal will try to find space behind the defence with Ødegaard’s forward passes. The team that beats the first press can create chances, but both managers are focused on disrupting that connection.
Another battle is Arsenal’s left-sided attack against Liverpool’s makeshift right-back. Eberechi Eze scored against Bayern Munich after receiving a pass from Ødegaard. If Araújo starts at right-back, he will be up against Eze. If Araújo struggles there, Liverpool could move Ryan Gravenberch to the right, as they did against Villarreal, but that would also change the shape in midfield. At the other end, Madueke’s availability matters. If he plays, Arsenal can attack down both flanks. If he is out, they will lack a natural right winger.
Set pieces offer both teams a way to score without playing through the press. Liverpool pulled a goal back against Villarreal when Alexis Mac Allister headed in after a corner, and Arsenal took the lead against Everton from a corner. That was Arsenal’s first non-penalty set-piece goal of the season (Sky Sports, October 24). If Liverpool score first, Arsenal will have to push forward, though Liverpool conceded after taking the lead against Villarreal. If Arsenal go ahead, they can defend in the shape they used against Everton, leaving Liverpool with less space to attack quickly.
3. Final assessment and picks
The market gives Arsenal a slight edge away from home, pointing to their second-place standing and league-best defensive record. We should also consider the quality of their recent opponents when weighing that record. Arsenal’s recent league wins came against Everton, Nottingham Forest, Leeds and Sunderland, while they lost 3-0 away to Brighton & Hove Albion, one of the stronger sides they have faced (DataCenter). The reason we differ from the market is how both managers plan to respond. Arteta wants to cut off the supply to Isak, while Iraola is emphasising duels and set pieces against Arsenal’s defence. Both teams’ main routes to goal will face a direct response.
If Madueke plays and gives Arsenal an outlet on both flanks, the defence can spread out instead of focusing on Eze, making a one-goal Arsenal win more likely. With the current squad situation, Liverpool’s makeshift right-back and Arsenal’s shortage of right-sided attackers both affect their attacking options. We expect it to be difficult for either team to create chances consistently after beating the press. A draw with one goal each from a set piece or counterattack looks likely, along with a match featuring 2 goals or fewer in total.
[Final picks · by market · Betman release] 1X2: Draw. Arsenal are short of right-wing options with Saka and Dowman unavailable and Madueke uncertain, leaving too much of the attack to come through Eze. Liverpool’s makeshift right-back Araújo is unlikely to push forward, and both managers want to cut off the opponent’s main supply route. With only one main route left for each side, we expect both teams to struggle to score more than once. Handicap +1: Win. An Arsenal win by 2 goals looks hard to justify with their right-sided attack depleted. Even if Liverpool fall behind, they still have routes to a goal through a set-piece header or a Barcola counterattack. Handicap +2: Win. For the same reasons, Arsenal do not have a clear route to a win by 3 goals or more. Over/Under 2.5: Under. The two high presses should reduce the number of chances. If a Liverpool mistake gives Arsenal the lead, Raya and Arsenal’s defensive shape should allow them to sit back and protect it, taking away the space Barcola needs. We do not expect the goals to keep trading.
