New England have won four league games in a row without winning the shot count in any of them. They faced 21, 19, 25 and 20 shots in those wins and finished behind on xG every time, then won anyway, nine goals to five. Inter Miami are the opposite kind of side: they keep the ball, and on the road lately that hasn't stopped them getting swamped, with 19 shots against at Red Bulls on 66% possession and 20 at Atlanta on 55%. So this match is less about who has the ball than about what happens in the few seconds after Miami lose it.
That's where New England's comfort without the ball comes in. Across their last ten games with stats they've averaged under 48% possession and conceded 7.1 corners a game, which is a team perfectly happy to sit in and break. The predicted front three of Langoni, Turgeman and Gazdag suits that, though the cover behind it is thin: Harrison and Campana are out and Yusuf is doubtful in midfield. On Miami's side, Kily González had to defend Messi after he lost the ball on one of Cincinnati's goals in the 2-2, and said he'd probably make changes for this one.
The stakes aren't level either. The club says New England have already locked home-field for round one of the playoffs and a Concacaf Champions Cup place, while Miami sit two points behind them with something left to chase in the table. A Miami side pushing for the win usually means more bodies forward, which is exactly the version New England have been absorbing. The catch is that living on 19-plus shots against is a habit that ends badly sooner or later, and Messi and Suárez, who both trained normally according to Deporte Total USA, are the kind of finishers who end it.
