Portland score and concede in almost every game, and Houston are built to live on very little. One side has to attack because it needs the points, while the other can accept a level score and wait for a restart or a counter. That makes this a question of whether a patched-up Portland back line can keep things tidy behind an attack that keeps pouring forward. It also looks unlikely to be settled early.
Portland under Marti Cifuentes win through attacking output more than control. Velde has 10 goals and 10 assists, and Da Costa, Lassiter and Izoita carry the rest of the threat. They have also conceded 60 goals in 32 games, and two or more in eight of their last ten. Their recent form flatters them too: the win at St. Louis came on just 0.88 expected goals, and they have won only two of their last six at home.
Those six home games are the row that matters here. The visitors scored 0, 1, 2, 2, 2 and 4, and those visitors had road attacks both weaker and stronger than Houston's. Colorado and Atlanta also kept Portland off the scoresheet at Providence Park, so an organised visitor can hold this attack.
Houston are the reverse. They score little and lean heavily on Guilherme, but Bond has 12 clean sheets and they lost only two of their last ten. At Seattle they took two shots, had 29% of the ball and still won, through a Bogusz corner headed in by Halter.
That is the key matchup. Fory and Miller both played at St. Louis and both miss this match, and they won six aerial duels between them that night. Their likely replacements are untested as a unit, and they now face Bogusz's deliveries and Halter in the air. At the other end, Velde and Da Costa against Houston's unsettled full-back spots is Portland's clearest way to create, which puts Bond and his centre-backs at the centre of the home side's volume.
Guilherme and Herrera were both still questionable in the latest preview, and neither played at Seattle. I have built this view assuming both miss. Bogusz's set pieces and the pace of Aliyu and the bench against a chasing team do not need either of them, and any return would be a bonus. Portland's longer absence list is mostly old news, so the real change is those two defenders.
I expect Portland to start on the front foot with the crowd behind them, and Houston to sit through the opening spell. If Portland score first, Houston have to come out, but Portland gave up goals after leading in both recent wins, going from 3-0 to 3-2 at St. Louis and from 2-1 to 2-2 against Charlotte. If it stays level past the hour, Portland keep pushing because a draw barely helps them, and that leaves room for Houston's bench in the last 20 minutes.
That's why I'm siding with Houston to leave Providence Park with something. They have more than one way to get there, and the home side's control looks much less secure than its recent wins suggest.
