The table and the underlying play tell two different stories here. Monaco are top and unbeaten, but across a hard opening schedule their chances for and against are almost exactly level, and the gap in results comes from finishing and goalkeeping. Toulouse sit in the bottom half while creating clearly more than they concede under their new coach. The finisher behind half of Monaco's goals is suspended, which makes this a much more level meeting than the standings suggest.
Monaco under Filipe Luís win by sitting deeper against good sides and breaking. They won at PSG with a third of the ball and very little in chance terms, and at Marseille with roughly even chances. Over five league games they have taken fewer shots than they have faced. Paris Brunner scored four of their eight goals, and he is officially out.
Toulouse under Jens Berthel Askou are built on an aggressive press. They lead the league for possessions won in the opponent's box, and their chance volume has been best against the strongest sides they have met. They dominated Lyon and Lille at home on chances without scoring. Their problem has been finishing, not creating.
The key matchup is that press against Monaco's build-up through Camara and Zakaria. Monaco are happy to give up the ball at home, which hands Toulouse territory and shots. Monaco's answer is Abline running in behind a high line, with Golovin supplying the passes. Without Brunner, the question is whether their finishing edge leaves with him. Abline is still waiting for his first goal, and Balogun and Fati are only just back to fitness.
I expect a tight first half, since Toulouse have scored almost all of their goals after the break. The second half opens up. Toulouse's volume rises, while Monaco's bench of Balogun, Fati and Biereth comes into play late. Level scores of one-all or two-all are the shapes I see most often in this picture, and a home side whose results rest on a missing finisher and an in-form goalkeeper is not as secure as its position suggests.
That's why I'm siding with Toulouse not to lose this one.
