Two possession-minded sides that both want the ball and both give up real chances, so this looks like an open match rather than a one-sided one. The scoreline-and-table picture says Liverpool, but the chance numbers are much closer than that.
Over their last ten, Liverpool create a little more than they allow, while Villarreal sit a bit higher on the same measure. Villarreal's figure is padded by weak opponents, and against Real Madrid and Napoli they lost the chance count, so I treat the two as roughly level rather than giving Villarreal an edge. The more telling detail is at Anfield: in the three home games where chance data exists, Liverpool were out-created every time, including by Tottenham and Forest. The big win at LASK also overstates their control, since the chances there were far closer than the score.
The squad news matters on one flank. Both of Liverpool's right-backs, Bradley and Frimpong, are out, and Szoboszlai and Ekitike are missing as well. Villarreal's route is wide balls, crosses and set pieces, which is exactly where a makeshift right side gets tested. Liverpool still have the shot volume and attacking depth with Wirtz, Barcola and Isak, so I expect them to push hard and probably have more of the ball.
The likely flow is a trade of chances with the first goal important. Liverpool's two biggest chance totals this season came against weak or reduced opposition, and Villarreal have shown they can score from the wide and set-piece routes. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal not to lose, a draw or a win, rather than backing Liverpool to take it.
