[26-27 NBA] Golden State Warriors vs LA Clippers preview and analysis Tip-off: November 2, 01:30 UTC
A three-game winning streak for the Golden State Warriors and a four-game losing streak for the LA Clippers make the home side look like the favorite. But today, Golden State are likely to be without the two players who have driven their winning run on offense.
1. Game overview and team form
Steve Kerr reportedly plans to rest Curry and Green today, the first night of a back-to-back, and play Al Horford before resting him tomorrow (Yahoo Sports, October 31; Heavy, November 1). Curry has scored 29 points per game across five games, while Green leads the team with 36 assists in five games. With both out, Yaxel Lendeborg’s drives to the rim and trips to the free-throw line, along with the ball-handling of Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton and Brandon Williams, will become the focus of the offense. In the game against the Phoenix Suns without Curry, Williams put up 20 points and five assists, but Golden State lost that game 122-131. Horford and Charles Bassey are expected to split the center minutes (Sports Illustrated, November 1).
The Warriors came back against the LA Lakers after falling behind 15-38 in the first quarter, outscoring them 50-7 in bench points (Yahoo Sports, October 31). Melton and Williams will need to fill starting roles today, so we would not expect the same bench advantage. Kerr will need to protect the paint while Horford is on the floor and keep the ball moving and the points coming when he sits.
Darius Garland leads the Clippers’ offense with 110 points and 31 assists in five games, while Kris Dunn shares the ball-handling duties. Brook Lopez and Keaton Wagler add scoring off the bench. Their four-game skid has come against teams with at least four wins, which is worth bearing in mind, but turnovers and rebounding have also been recurring problems. Against the LA Lakers, the Clippers committed 24 turnovers and lost the offensive rebounding battle 12-17. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Garland struggled to run the offense under Jalen Clark’s defense (AOL, October 31). Tyronn Lue needs to see how much Dunn and Lopez can take on alongside Garland.
2. Matchup analysis
The first matchup is ball-handling. If Golden State puts Melton on Garland and applies pressure, the Clippers can put the ball in Dunn’s hands and keep the offense going with Lopez and Rui Hachimura finishing inside. At the other end, the Clippers’ decision on whether to send help against Lendeborg’s drives to the rim will matter. He has turned the ball over 12 times over the past two games. If he gives it away, the Clippers, who average 11.4 steals per game, can get out in transition. The Clippers have also averaged 22.2 turnovers per game over five games. If Melton’s pressure forces Garland into mistakes, Golden State can create points the same way.
The second matchup is what happens inside when Horford rests. Without Green, Horford, Bassey and Lendeborg will have to share the rebounding and rim protection duties for the Warriors. The Clippers bring Lopez off the bench, so when Bassey’s minutes rise, Lopez and Hachimura can target offensive rebounds and points in the paint. Lopez had 13 points and six rebounds off the bench against the Minnesota Timberwolves, while Hachimura scored 12 points in 26 minutes in his return (Roundtable, October 31). If Horford and Lendeborg win the rebounding battle, the Clippers could again find scoring chances hard to come by, as they have in recent losses.
Even if Golden State take the lead, their second-half management is a variable. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves, a 24-point lead shrank to four with 30 seconds left after Curry went to the bench (Press Democrat, October 29). Today, Bassey and Williams will have to share that responsibility while Horford rests.
3. Final view and conclusion
We see the Clippers as more likely to win. The Warriors are expected to be without both Curry and Green, leaving a new combination to handle the ball and supply the passes. The Clippers also turn the ball over often, but Garland and Dunn are available, and they have a chance to force mistakes on defense. If Lendeborg’s drives end in turnovers and Lopez attacks the paint while Horford rests, the visitors can pull away.
The market sees the Warriors as favorites on the strength of their three-game winning streak and the Clippers’ four-game skid. Curry’s scoring and Green’s playmaking were both part of that run, but both are expected to rest today, which is why we differ from the market (Yahoo Sports, October 31). If Melton forces turnovers from Garland and Horford controls the boards, the home side can still win. Even then, the Warriors will need to turn their possessions without Curry into points.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman listings] Moneyline: Loss. With Curry and Green both expected to sit, the Warriors conceded 131 points in their only previous game without them. The Clippers have the edge in the turnover battle, with their steals and primary ball-handlers intact. Handicap -1.5: Loss. We do not see a home win as the likely outcome, so we are also passing on a win by two or more. The more likely route to a gap on the scoreboard is the Clippers taking advantage of Lendeborg’s turnovers and the stretches when Bassey is the lone rim protector. Over/under 220.5: Under. Both offenses will lean on one ball-handler, Lendeborg and Garland, while the Warriors’ three-point attempts could fall to around 30 without Curry, lowering both teams’ half-court scoring efficiency.
