Two matches, one shared shape: neither back line is settled, and both attacks get their chances. In both games I expect an open, event-rich match rather than a controlled one, where a blank sheet for either side would need a spell of game management that neither team has shown lately.
Lens against Sporting. Lens press from the wing-back line and Thauvin's service, averaging around 17 shots and 7 corners a game, while Sporting hurt teams with wide dribblers and a mobile striker. The key matchup is Sporting's wide pace against a Lens back three that has just lost Gradit, who went off injured at Lyon in the second half. On the other side, Sporting are without their regular centre-back Debast; the replacement pair got through Braga, but that win leaned on two own goals and Sporting were outshot. Lens's attack is intact, since they scored twice at Lyon without Sima.
The flow should be lively. Sporting's goals often come early, Lens tend to score in the last twenty minutes of the first half, and both sides have conceded late. Lens gave up goals around the 85th minute against Lyon, and Sporting's expected goals against piled up after the break in recent games. A clean 1-0 or 2-0 needs one side to shut the game down, and neither has done that recently. That's why I'm backing both teams to find the net here.
Bristol City against Blackburn. Bristol City create plenty, with 12 to 18 shots in five of their last eight league games, but finish poorly, and Blackburn concede around 15 shots and 1.5 expected goals a game. Bristol's back line is patched: Dickie is out, Eile is doubtful and McNally is only just back after a very long injury. Blackburn's attack looks unchanged, with Gudjohnsen, Cantwell and Morishita in the expected XI, and they have scored from very few chances before, such as two goals from about 0.6 expected goals at Portsmouth.
Expect Bristol City to have the territory and the corners, and Blackburn to hit back on quick turnovers or a set piece. Bristol's bench has been decisive in the second half, and their back line has leaked late, so the final half hour can produce the second goal for whichever side is still looking for one. I'm siding with goals at both ends in this match too.
