Two matches here turn on the same thing: what a stretched squad can really do over 90 minutes. At Villarreal, a home side with far better chance numbers than its league place meets a tired visitor run by a stand-in coach. At Le Havre, a rotated Paris side without its best wide forwards meets a bottom club whose results look worse than its football. In both games the table says less than the shape of the squads does.
Villarreal have 20.57 xG against 11.19 over ten league games, yet the table has them 10th because they keep wasting chances. Their home work against lower-table sides is the real picture: they made 4.27 xG against Levante and 2.15 against Elche, and allowed just 0.45 and 0.26.
The key duel is their press against Espanyol's first pass. Espanyol are likely to have one man holding midfield, and they played 120 minutes on a heavy pitch at Sestao days before this match. Reserve coach Sergio Garcia admits recovery was the priority and has had about two sessions. Their last three league games produced 0.99, 0.53 and 0.52 xG, and they already concede most after half-time.
Gueye is suspended and Saliba is out, but Comesana and Macia started together against Elche and control did not drop. Most of the likely starters were rested midweek, which matters on short turnaround. Espanyol's best window is the opening 25 minutes, when the new voice brings emotion. After the hour the Copa legs should show, and Perez's bench is where his goals have come from lately. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal to win it.
At Le Havre I expect Paris to have most of the ball and probably to take the points. What I doubt is a heavy scoreline. Dembele, Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes are all out, and two French papers expect Vitinha, Doue, Hakimi and Pacho to start on the bench, with Villarreal away four days later.
That group has started slowly before: 1-0 down at half-time at Strasbourg, and 0-0 until the 72nd minute against Lyon. Paris's last five wins were all by exactly two goals, and none of their five league away games has been won by more than that.
Le Havre are bottom, but they are not being outplayed. Digard's side cross more than anyone in the league by Luis Enrique's own account, and Maja and Fofana will test a re-formed back four. Under this coach they have stayed close to Monaco, Lyon, Lille and Marseille, and they have not suffered a heavy defeat in 20 games.
The Paris bench should tell after an hour, but with a lead in hand and a European trip ahead there is little reason to chase more. That's why I'm siding with Le Havre to keep this one respectable.
