Two matches, one theme: what changed this week matters more than what the tables say. Villarreal and Espanyol both played in the cup three days ago, but they came out of it carrying very different loads. Lille and Lens look like a tight derby between two organised sides, yet both have had to rebuild their defences. In each case the headline hides the part of the pitch that will decide the game.
Villarreal against Espanyol starts with minutes. Villarreal won 5-0 in the cup and gave no time at all to Foyth, Veiga or Comesana. Espanyol lost 4-3 after extra time on a heavy pitch, with their back line going about 120 minutes, and their interim coach, who has had two sessions, says many players could not train afterwards.
The key matchup is Villarreal's box volume and corners against a changed Espanyol centre-back pair, with Riedel reported missing. Espanyol's quick runners, Zaragoza and Dolan, are their best door, but they also played in that cup tie and now run at defenders with fresh legs. Espanyol have managed barely half an expected goal in each of their last two league games.
Villarreal do miss Gueye and Saliba in midfield, but Macia and Comesana already held Elche to almost nothing at this ground. Fortuno's recent saving is real, and it is why I see this as a patient win and not a rout. Expect Espanyol's best spell early, then Villarreal's bench of Mikautadze, Moreno and Cardona arriving against tired legs. Espanyol have conceded late in each of their last four games. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal.
Lille against Lens is about two defences under repair. Nianzou is suspended and Santos is out, so Lille's likely pair is Ngoy and Alexsandro, who started together in the 2-4 against Galatasaray. Lens are without Nawrocki and Ganiou, Gradit has not played since early October, and Todibo has been coming off around the hour.
Lille's reputation for meanness is thinner than it looks. They have allowed far more chances than their six conceded suggests, and their second halves are much looser than their first. Lens bring box volume and Thauvin's delivery, plus a press aimed at that new pair. They have scored in seven of eight league games, even without Edouard in their last win.
Going the other way, Lille have scored in every league match, often from a handful of shots. Diaoune and Mbappe can run behind high wing-backs and a back three short of minutes, and Lens have not kept a league clean sheet yet. The first half may be tense, but it should open after the hour, when both benches and both tired back lines come into play. That's why I expect a goal at each end.
