Two Champions League Elite games, and both come down to timing more than names. In Kyoto, the real question is how big the gap can get, not who wins, because Kyoto's attack doesn't produce many chances. In Daejeon, the match should open up after the hour, when the home side's usual bench changes meet a Kobe team on its fifth game in two weeks. Both games have early phases that are likely to stay quiet.
Kyoto under Popovic play direct and without much of the ball. Over their last seven matches they averaged 44% possession and under ten shots a game, and their goals come from Arai's wide runs, late substitutes and transitions rather than sustained pressure. Their only home ACLE game against a non-Japanese side finished 1-0, with the winner in the 88th minute. They haven't won by two or more in their last 20 matches, and the reason is their low chance volume, not bad luck.
Newcastle's heavy ACLE defeats came against Gamba and Kashima, possession-heavy sides that out-shot them 24-9 and 18-4. Kyoto play the opposite way. The 7-1 at Kashima was also badly inflated by goalkeeping. Newcastle are without Cooper and Fryer at centre-back, but both also missed the last game, so this is the back line that is already playing. They have scored in five of their last six. Kyoto should win more of the ball high up, but their finishing volume limits how far ahead they can get. That's why I'm siding with Newcastle to keep this within a goal.
Daejeon under Hwang Sun-hong win late. Every goal they scored in their last six games came after half-time, and Diogo has come off the bench to score in four of them, with Ludwigson adding another. Crosses from the right feed a crowded box. Kobe press hard and battle hard, but they have scored only once in a first half in their last six, and in their latest congested games they conceded at 61 and 71 minutes at Kawasaki and faced 19 shots against Machida. Reports from Japan say Skibbe is targeting at least a point and is travelling with injured and tired players plus youth.
Expect a guarded first half, with Kobe's press and Diego's long throws as their best early weapons. Then Daejeon's fresher core and bench should push after the hour against tiring legs, at home, with Hwang promising his best side. A draw is a real outcome here too, and the selection covers it. I'm with Daejeon.
