Corinthians arrive on five straight league defeats, but the chances tell a different story than the results. In several of those losses they created as much as or more than the other side and simply didn't finish. Now Yuri Alberto is back after two months out, while Inter go into the match with a new coach, a backup keeper and no first-choice centre-forward. I think this is a spot where Corinthians' form looks worse than their football.
Look at the losing run closely. Against Chapecoense, Corinthians had 2.12 expected goals to 0.95 and lost 1-2. At Coritiba it was 0.68 to 0.41, and they lost 1-2 again. Against Fluminense the chances were level at around 2.4 each, and it ended 1-3. That's a finishing problem, not a team being run over.
Yuri Alberto is the obvious fix. He's finished his recovery, trained fully with the group, and is in line to play alongside Memphis Depay. Corinthians are also out of the Libertadores now, so the league has their full attention.
Inter's side of it is shakier than the table suggests. They haven't won any of their last four home league games: three draws and a defeat. First-choice keeper Rochet is out with a back problem, centre-forward Tonny Sanabria is out with a calf injury, and Eduardo Baptista takes charge for the first time after Paulo Pezzolano was sacked.
This fixture also tends to be tight: six of the last twelve meetings ended level. Corinthians usually have more of the ball, and with a proper number nine back, I like them not to lose.
