Washington's four-game slide reads worse than the team that will actually take the floor in Indianapolis. Two of those losses came without Anthony Davis, and Davis is back at full load. Indiana is still without Tyrese Haliburton, has lost the rebounding battle in eight of its last ten games and is winless at home. This matchup comes down to Davis and the glass against Indiana's three-point volume.
Indiana's offence without Haliburton runs through Pascal Siakam, who scored 29 at Dallas, and Andrew Nembhard as the main creator. Nesmith and the bench wings add threes, and Indiana makes 12 to 21 of them on a normal night. The weak spot is the boards: 27-43 at Dallas, 39-49 against Atlanta, 45-51 against Denver. Its four home games so far have all been losses, by 4 to 16 points.
Washington runs through Trae Young's pick-and-roll, with Dybantsa and George on the wings. The difference is Davis. At Detroit on his return he played 34 minutes, went 14 of 17 from the field and 10 of 11 at the line, and grabbed 13 rebounds. The slide came from two different teams: the blowouts at Atlanta and Oklahoma City came without him, and the Detroit loss came against a much stronger side.
The key matchup is Davis against Zubac and Siakam inside. Zubac had only three rebounds in 27 minutes at Dallas, and Indiana has no second big who has shown he can handle this kind of load. On the other side of the ball, rookie Braden Smith starts at point guard, and T.J. McConnell is listed questionable after playing eight minutes in the last game. That puts nearly all of Indiana's half-court creation on Siakam and Nembhard.
The turnover columns look level, so this is not a game Washington wins by forcing mistakes. Indiana's real path is the three-point line, where Washington is likely to make fewer. Washington's answer is paint points, second chances and free throws, plus Davis closing out the fourth quarter at the line. Indiana has already lost close fourth quarters at home to Atlanta and Philadelphia.
With Davis back, Washington doesn't need a great night, only its normal with-Davis game against a home side that hasn't shown it can protect the glass. That's why I'm siding with Washington to win this one outright.
