Both home teams have more than one way to keep scoring after an opponent changes its first defensive assignment. Nagasaki and Fubon each have strong interior players and credible early offense. The issue is how their newer rotations handle the middle quarters and finish defensive possessions late. The home responses in recent games give these matchups their shape.
Alvark can use Rossiter's screens and rebounds while Hogg, Johnson and Ando take turns finishing. Nagasaki has Brantley, Randolph and Baba, who played its last game, but Aguilar has departed and Mitchell's removal from the injury list has not yet produced a sustained on-court pairing. Alvark answered when San-en cut into its lead and kept scoring with a later unit; Nagasaki has had three consecutive low-scoring fourth quarters. That's why I'm siding with Alvark to sustain its lead through the finish.
Fubon can score through Todorovic, Chou and Chen, and its plan to crowd King gives KCC a clear second test. KCC has already answered a quieter King game through Heo Ung, Long and Heo Hoon's passing; Hoon played substantial minutes in its last game despite the reported finger issue. Fubon's Mbaye return and Che debut have no current-game rotation evidence, while KCC has recently closed a game with late defense even after Long fouled out. That's why I'm siding with KCC Egis to keep adding scores after Fubon's first adjustment.
