Two Bundesliga games where the table hides what the chances say. Hoffenheim and Hamburg have the same points, but one side creates and leaks while the other barely creates at all. Mainz and Leverkusen are level too, yet Leverkusen have out-created every opponent they have faced recently, and their poor away results come from finishing rather than from being outplayed. In both games I start from the chances made and conceded, not from the results.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburg: under Ilzer, Hoffenheim press hard, overload the wings and create roughly two goals' worth of chances a game against solid Bundesliga sides. Their problem is the other end. The keeper has been below par, and they threw away leads late against Dortmund and at Koln. Hamburg are the opposite: in three of their four league games they produced around one expected goal or less, including a single shot on target at home to Mainz, and they have not scored away from home.
The key duel is Hoffenheim's press against Hamburg's build-up from the back three, and Polzin has openly said he wants to go long to Poulsen to get past it. That outlet is fragile. Poulsen has never completed a full Bundesliga game for Hamburg and took a calf knock recently. Gronbaek, who set up both goals in their one convincing league win, is out with a muscle tear, as is Daka. El Ouahdi is also likely missing at right-back, which leaves that flank open to Daghim.
I expect Hoffenheim to take territory early and score from a wing overload or a turnover. Hamburg then have to open up, and they have conceded heavily whenever a good attack got at them. Hoffenheim may well concede something late, but the late collapses came against far sharper attacks than this Hamburg side without its creator. I'm backing Hoffenheim to win, and I'm not asking for a clean sheet.
Mainz vs Leverkusen: Martinez's Leverkusen have the ball, push their full-backs high and pile up shots and corners. In the games I looked at they allowed very little in return, even away. At Augsburg they had thirty shots and still drew, and their loss at Elversberg came from a few transition chances going in. Mainz under Fischer are a direct, hard-working side, but the better attacks they faced (Frankfurt, Gladbach) carved them open.
The absences hit Mainz where it matters. Zentner is out, so the backup keeper faces a side that puts plenty of shots on target. Captain and right wing-back Widmer looks short of a start, and Kohr and Nebel are missing too. Mainz's route is a quick break through Becker and Tietz behind Leverkusen's full-backs, and they will start with home energy. Over ninety minutes, though, Leverkusen's steadier creation and a stronger bench in the final half-hour should tell. A draw is a real possibility given how open this pairing usually gets, so I chose a selection that survives that branch. I'm siding with Leverkusen not to lose.
