Both Porto Alegre clubs go into this Gre-Nal in the relegation zone, Inter 17th on 31 points and Grêmio 18th on 30, each with a coach who has only been in the job a few weeks. The awkward part is that neither side has looked like a team that wants the ball. Inter have averaged around 40% possession in the games we have stats for, and their best recent result, the 2-1 over Corinthians, came with 28% of it. So Grêmio, at home, will probably be the ones asked to carry the game, and from open play their numbers don't really back that up.
Grêmio's home/away split is extreme. All seven of their league wins have come at the Arena, with 22 goals in 14 home games, against nine goals and no wins in 15 away. Even so, the underlying numbers are thin: across their last eight matches with stats they've averaged roughly 0.9 xG for and 2.0 against. Renato Portaluppi's only home game so far, the 0-0 with Palmeiras, saw them with 28% of the ball and 31 shots faced. After the 1-1 at Remo, where they conceded the equaliser late, Renato said he can't fix in fifteen days what wasn't done in nine months.
That's why I don't think set pieces are a side note here. Grêmio's goal at Remo came from a corner, and Eduardo Baptista has said openly that he wants two specialist centre-backs on the pitch because Grêmio are dangerous from dead balls. He'll have to do it without Maripán, whom he called very likely out, with Juninho recovered from cramp and Félix Torres back in training. Baptista also said a draw would be acceptable in an away direct clash, which sounds like a coach happy to hand Grêmio the ball.
Grêmio have holes of their own. Dodi is suspended after a third yellow, Marlon is still a doubt, and Wallace may play in a protective mask after breaking his nose at Remo. Inter are without first-choice keeper Rochet, so Anthoni stays in goal after a busy game against Corinthians, where shots hit the woodwork or were stopped by him.
The two cup meetings a few weeks back, 0-0 and then 3-1 to Grêmio, came before either coaching change, so I wouldn't lean on them much. The question I'd watch isn't who's in worse form. It's whether Grêmio can create anything in open play when Inter sit deep, or whether a derby with this much at stake ends up decided by a dead ball. Curious how Grêmio and Inter fans here read it: does Renato open up at home, or does he keep the shape that drew with Palmeiras?
