Göztepe at home against Zeren away is a meeting of a side that spreads its attack against a side whose game only travels well to the bottom of the table. When you line up the opponents both teams have played, with the venues pointing the same way as this match, Göztepe come out ahead every time. Zeren also arrive on heavy legs after a five-set marathon and a trip. The likely shape is Göztepe controlling most sets, with Zeren fighting to drag one or two to deuce.
Göztepe under Arsov have rebuilt the squad over the summer, but the new group is finding its rhythm: three wins in a row, including a clean home win over Manisa and a four-set win at Beşiktaş. Against Kuzeyboru, Bektaş scored 21 and the Chinese middle Zhuang 19. A middle scoring that much means the passing is holding and the setter can reach the middle. They have gone to five sets only once in their last ten matches. When they lose, they lose cleanly, and that happened against elite serving from Vakıfbank.
Zeren are a different team at home and away. In Ankara they win long fights, 32-30 and 28-30 type sets against İlbank and a 156-minute five-setter against Beşiktaş. Away against anyone outside the relegation zone, their side-out game breaks: 0-3 at Aras with sets of 16, 20 and 20, and 0-3 at Vakıfbank. Their only road win came at struggling Manisa.
The key matchup is Göztepe's first pass against Zeren's serve. Göztepe's reception only cracked against Vakıfbank and held against Beşiktaş and Kuzeyboru, the level Zeren sit at. Zeren's outside depth is thin, with Pipunyrova out since early October, so Nicoletti and Franklin have to carry the scoring. Göztepe's opposite Liabiodkina was not among the scorers in the last win, and the team still won comfortably through Bektaş and Zhuang.
Expect Göztepe to take control from the serve line and through the middle once Zeren's tired outside hitters start to struggle in reception. Zeren's best chances are the first set and perhaps one later deuce set. Three days after a 156-minute match, holding that level for long is hard.
That's why I'm siding with Göztepe to win this one cleanly, without needing a fifth set.
