Both of these games pit a side that lives on the perimeter or the whistle against a side whose interior attack meets the opponent's softest end. Sono shoot threes in huge volume but have leaked inside and on the glass in every game I could measure, and Mobis are built to attack exactly that. Ryukyu are a defence, rebounding and free-throw team with only one true centre left, and Yokohama's current scorers live in the paint. In both games the measured mismatch points to a close finish rather than the comfortable margin the reputations suggest.
Sono against Mobis first. Sono take close to forty threes a game and win the turnover count, but opponents made about two thirds of their twos against them in the three games with full box scores, and Sono lost the rebound battle in both games where it was counted. Mobis are the opposite style: few threes, a lot of two-point volume through Prim and Bazley at better than half, a clear rebounding edge and around twenty free throws a game.
The key matchup is Prim and Bazley inside against O'Bryant, James and Quiambao, whose bigs float outside on offence. Both Mobis bigs played the last game, Prim for 36 minutes and Bazley for 21 off the bench with 22 and 14. Jo Han-jin's absence was already inside that win, so nothing here leans on news. Sono's real answers are their ball pressure on Mobis's handlers and a hot shooting night. At Samsung, though, they made 17 threes and still lost because the other side owned the paint and the line.
Expect an early Mobis paint run while Sono settle, Sono bursts from outside in the second quarter, and a tight finish where Sono have lately lost games by one and four points. That's why I'm siding with Mobis receiving points on the road.
Yokohama against Ryukyu. Ryukyu are missing Jerrett and Kawamata from every box score this season, which leaves Cooley as the only real centre. Without them, opponents made nearly 59 percent of their twos, at or above 59 percent in three of four games, against decent sides. Yokohama's offence runs through Namizato's creation, Kotsar inside and Livers attacking the basket. Kotsar has been productive in recent games, including a 25-and-17 night.
Yokohama's own absences, McGusty and King, are not new. Five results without them were all close: wins by seven and nine, losses by five and one, and an overtime win. Ryukyu's real path is drawing fouls through Nwaba and Cooley and winning the glass, and Yokohama do concede a lot of free throws. But Ryukyu's trips to the line dropped sharply in their last two games, they convert under 70 percent, and their three-point shooting sits around 31 percent, so the quick margin-builder isn't there.
The swing window is when Cooley sits, because then Ryukyu have no second centre and Kotsar should feast. Expect a slow, physical game that stays within a few possessions late. That's why I'm siding with Yokohama receiving points at home.
