Both of these games come down to ball security. The Clippers keep giving the ball away because their roster has almost no handlers left. The Lakers' turnovers rise every time they face a team that hunts steals, and Toronto is one of the best at it. In each game, the side that wins the possession count also has the shooting volume or the bench to turn those extra trips into points.
Golden State against the Clippers first. Golden State live on three-point volume, between 36 and 46 attempts in each of their last seven games. That volume held at 39 in the one game they played without both Curry and Green, at Phoenix. In that game Podziemski and Horford were missing as well, and both are back for this one. The Clippers have lost four straight and turned it over 18, 26, 26, 24 and 17 times. Even against a Minnesota side with only seven steals they gave it away 17 times, so this is not just opponents forcing it.
The cause is the roster. With Beal, Ingram, Strus and Jordan Miller all out, Garland, playing through back tightness, and Dunn are the only real ball handlers. None of the missing guards is back, so the leak is there in every minute Garland sits. Curry and Green are resting with the back-to-back coming. That takes Curry's scoring and Green's organising off the floor, and the Warriors' small lineups really do leak defensively. But the Clippers have scored about 101 or fewer in three of their last five, so they are not the attack best suited to punish it.
I expect Lendeborg, Melton and Podziemski to share the creation, with the bench's three-point volume and run-outs off Clippers turnovers building an early lead. The Clippers' way back is Garland driving and getting to the line during the small-ball minutes. Taken together, the extra possessions and the shooting volume count for more than that. That's why I'm siding with Golden State to win.
Now the Lakers against Toronto. The Lakers run on Doncic and a lot of threes, but their turnovers follow the opponent: 18 to 21 against all four forcing teams they have met, against only 10 and 15 against two sides that barely steal. Toronto, even without Leonard, forced 20 or more turnovers against four of its last five opponents and kept its own giveaways around 14.
That means about four or five extra possessions for Toronto, many of them live-ball steals that turn into transition baskets. On the other side, the Lakers have a small edge in three-point volume and free throws, plus home court. Toronto's bench pressure unit against the Lakers' bench is where runs should come, and the Lakers have faded in fourth quarters. I expect an early Lakers lead that Toronto's pressure wears down into a close finish. That's why I'm siding with Toronto to win this one outright.
