[26/27 UEFA Champions League] Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis preview and analysis Kick-off: November 4, 20:00 UTC
Dortmund will look to disrupt Real Betis’ circulation with aggressive pressing and challenges. Betis intend to build their attack around Isco even away from home, setting up a midfield battle that could shape the game in the second half.
1. Match overview and team form
Niko Kovac said Dortmund would need intensity and commitment regardless of their formation, with Real Betis expected to move the ball quickly (SportSchau, WDR, November 3). Dortmund have used both a back three and a back four, and their starting shape has not been announced. They have won four and drawn one of their last five home matches in all competitions, but five of their six wins in their last 10 games came by a single goal. Their 2-2 draw away to Bayern Munich also owed something to Gregor Kobel’s saves, the hosts’ missed chances and a late goal from a substitute. Recent results alone do not show that Dortmund have consistently overpowered their opponents.
Dortmund’s substitutes have made a clear impact. Maximilian Beier scored the winner in the 80th minute against Eintracht Frankfurt, while Marcel Sabitzer decided the Werder Bremen game with a stoppage-time free kick. Substitute Fábio Silva also scored the equaliser against Bayern Munich. Kovac said everyone except long-term absentees Emre Can and Giannis Konstantelias was available for selection (Futti, November 3). Dortmund are playing their fourth match in the space of 12 days, though.
Real Betis manager Manuel Pellegrini said his team would stick with their approach of going for a win from the opening play (Mundo Betis, November 3). Their attack starts with Isco’s distribution and Abde Ezzalzouli’s runs down the left. Their three goals in their last three matches have come from two set pieces and a penalty. With Cucho Hernández injured and left out of the travelling squad, Troy Parrott is expected to lead the line (EFE, November 3; Comuniate, November 2). Parrott missed decisive chances against Feyenoord and RC Celta de Vigo. Betis are on a three-match winning run in the Champions League, but their defence has also conceded 14 goals in eight away games this season.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is Ezzalzouli’s runs down the left against Dortmund’s wide defending. Ezzalzouli won a penalty against Feyenoord and also started attacks from the flank against Málaga. If Dortmund use a back three, their wing-back and wide centre-back can work together to contain him. But when the wing-back pushes forward, space can open up for Ezzalzouli to attack. Dortmund conceded a goal while chasing the game against Werder Bremen after a foul in the penalty area. Betis have scored recently from set pieces and penalties, so defending the flank and avoiding fouls there will matter.
In midfield, Dortmund need to disrupt the build-up that gets the ball to Isco. If they bring the intensity Kovac wants, they can move the ball quickly to Serhou Guirassy and Beier. But inaccurate passes in their own half could allow Isco and Pablo Fornals to receive the ball in front of the penalty area. Bayern Munich’s opening goal began with an inaccurate pass from Felix Nmecha. Against Werder Bremen, Dortmund went two goals ahead and then left too much space between the lines. Kovac also acknowledged that they had allowed the opposition to break through the middle. Maintaining their shape will matter while Betis enjoy longer spells on the ball.
The teams could manage the final 20 minutes differently. Dortmund have had substitutes change the outcome in each of their last three matches. Betis sat deeper and gave the ball to their opponents after taking the lead against Málaga and Feyenoord. Even if Betis score first, Dortmund’s attacking substitutes could have time to make an impact. Betis have also recorded good results in matches that were level at half-time, so Dortmund need to win the midfield battle to create more late chances.
3. Final assessment and conclusion
We expect both teams to score, with Dortmund winning by one goal thanks to their options off the bench in the final 20 minutes. Betis have a scoring route through Isco’s set pieces. Dortmund have also had matches where their defensive shape opened up after taking the lead, so we cannot rule out them conceding. We think the game will be decided by the second-half attacking options Beier, Sabitzer and Fábio Silva have shown recently.
The market favours the home side on the strength of Dortmund’s home record and also leans towards a low-scoring game given both teams’ recent results. We agree with the direction of the match result and total goals, but expect around three goals, with Betis scoring from a set piece and Dortmund finding a late goal, rather than either team failing to score. If Betis take the lead from a set piece and Álvaro Valles keeps making saves, the result could still go against Dortmund despite their attacking substitutes.
[Final picks · by market · Betman listings] 1X2: Home win. Dortmund have more options to attack in the final 20 minutes than Betis have scoring routes beyond set pieces. -1 handicap: Draw. Dortmund win by exactly one goal, with a late winner from a substitute and a set-piece goal for Betis. -2 handicap: Away win. The conditions are not there for Dortmund to win by three goals or more. 3.5 total goals: Under. Betis’ goals have come only from set pieces and penalties, while Dortmund’s goals have arrived after late substitutions.
