[2026-27 UEFA Champions League] RC Lens vs Como 1907 preview and analysis Kick-off: November 4, 20:00 UTC
RC Lens can disrupt Como 1907’s build-up with pressure at home. If Como play through that pressure, they will look to pounce on loose balls in the box, an area RC Lens have struggled to deal with recently.
1. Match overview and team form
Yannick Cahuzac took charge of RC Lens on September 19, and the team have recorded 3 wins and 4 losses in 7 competitive matches since then. Their performances under him are more relevant to this match than their record before the change. Against Paris FC, Lens won the ball high up the pitch and attacked, but failed to score in the first half. Hazard came on after the break and combined with Thauvin for the equaliser, then Thauvin’s cross led to the winner. Cahuzac said Hazard can also play as a centre-forward (Homme du Match, October 30).
In the Champions League, Lens lost both matches under Cahuzac without scoring. They had 21 shots and 1.72 expected goals against Sporting CP, and took 19 shots against Club Brugge (DataCentre). They pressed and created chances, but could not turn them into goals. Édouard will be out for several weeks after adductor surgery, while Sima is also expected to miss out until late November (Homme du Match, October 30). That leaves Cahuzac weighing Ivanović and Hazard for the centre-forward role.
Como 1907 are on a five-match winning run in all competitions. The win over Venezia came from a penalty, though, and they were still trailing Torino until the 81st minute. Fabregas has changed games by linking play out wide and making attacking substitutions after the break. Against Sassuolo, he brought on three players at half-time, while substitute Baturina scored in stoppage time against Torino. He has fewer options for this match. Fabregas said he has only 15 outfield players available, making it hard to manage their workload (Tuttosport, November 3), and Addai is a major doubt (Diretta, November 3). Baturina is expected to start instead of coming off the bench. We need to consider whether Como can raise the intensity late on as they have in recent matches, given their limited options.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is RC Lens’ high press against Como 1907’s build-up from the back. Como conceded first against Torino after Naveros lost the ball in his own half. If Lens press high as they did against Paris FC, Thauvin and Hazard could receive the ball close to goal. But if Como play through the press and find Perrone and Ricci, Paz could get the ball behind Lens’ advanced midfield. Fabregas has said he is particularly wary of Thauvin (Tuttosport, November 3), so how Como’s two holding midfielders deal with him will matter too. If both step out to Thauvin, Hazard can use the space behind them.
The second battle will be inside RC Lens’ penalty area. Como have scored by sending the ball in from wide areas to Douvikas and Paz. In Lens’ last three matches, 3 of the 5 goals they conceded came from rebounds after goalkeeper Risser saved the initial shot. Even when Risser makes the save, if the defenders cannot clear the ball first, Como’s forwards can get another chance to shoot.
Lens have ways to limit that threat. A high press can reduce the number of times Como get the ball out wide, and Lens’ defenders need to reach the ball before Douvikas and Paz after a Risser save. If Como keep possession comfortably from the first half, Lens may struggle to maintain the energy they spend pressing into the second half. If Lens force an early passing error from Naveros and score, Como will have to come back with limited substitutes.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Como 1907 to create chances through wide combinations and second shots in the box, while Lens get one goal after the break through Thauvin. We lean towards a one-goal win for Como. Lens can create chances with their home press, but they failed to convert them in their two Champions League matches, and Édouard and Sima are both out. Como also have limited options for attacking changes late on, so after taking the lead they are more likely to manage the game with possession than to extend the margin.
The market gives Como 1907, who have won five in a row in all competitions, a slight edge and sees a large-margin win as unlikely. We agree with the market on both the result and the margin. The key is how Como’s wide attacks meet Lens’ defending of second balls in the box, rather than the winning streak alone. Fabregas’ comments about keeping an eye on Thauvin also leave room for Lens to score (Tuttosport, November 3). The factor that could change our view is Lens’ early press. If they turn a Como mistake at the back into a goal, the visitors will have to chase the game with few substitutes.
[Final picks · By market · Betman lines] Full-time result: Away win. Como 1907’s wide combinations and finishing in the box can exploit RC Lens’ weakness defending second balls, while Lens may struggle to finish the chances created by their press with Édouard and Sima absent from the attack. Handicap +1: Draw. Como lack the substitutes to increase their attacking threat after taking the lead, so we expect them to stay one goal ahead, while Lens find a goal through a second-half change and Thauvin. Handicap +2: Home win. Even if Como win, we expect the margin to stay at one goal, so RC Lens avoid losing by two or more. Under 3.5: Under. Como can slow the game down with possession after scoring twice, while Lens are unlikely to score more than once with their forward options depleted.
