Two group games where each team has a scoring route that meets the other side's specific weakness. In Gangneung, Gangwon's possession and corner volume meet a Kuching side that has leaked goals away from home, while Kuching's forwards meet a rotated Gangwon back line. In Shanghai, Machida's direct and aerial game meets a Shenhua defence missing its best centre-back, while Shenhua's power forwards meet a Machida rotation unit that has only faced the group's weakest sides. Neither game looks set up for one team to shut the other out.
Gangwon vs Kuching City. Gangwon will have the ball; they averaged around 61% and had 64% and eight corners against PPC in this competition. The catch is that their continental games have been played by a rotated side, and with a trip to Ulsan three days later, a mixed XI is the likely reading again. That reserve back line gave up two goals from three shots against PPC. Kuching score readily, in nine of their last ten games and thirteen goals in seven away matches, and they also concede readily away, two or more in each of their last two.
Both teams sit on one point and both coaches have called this a must-win, so Kuching cannot simply park the bus. Hwang Mun-ki's absence after surgery trims Gangwon's right-side delivery, but not their corner volume. Kuching's doubts are mainly wide and second-line options, while their two main forwards are not on the list. Expect Gangwon pressure with set pieces and Kuching breaks into the space behind.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida. Machida lead the J-League table, but their two group wins came from a rotation side, while the regular starters sat on the bench. That side out-shot Tampines massively and still only scored in stoppage time through substitutes. With Gamba next in the league, the same rotation looks likely again, with the J-League core coming on after the hour.
Shenhua have conceded in nine of their last ten games, given away four penalties in that run, and are without centre-back Zhu Chenjie after a jaw fracture. That fits what Machida do best: long balls to Duke, second balls, long throws and set pieces. At the other end, Ratao and Asue both played the full ninety in the last league game, and Ratao has won penalties in recent matches. Shenhua have no league game for well over a week, so they will push, and pushing opens the transitions Machida like.
That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends in both games: each team has a route to score that does not depend on controlling the match.
