Two of the weekend's top-of-the-table games share one shape: in each, the side that has to keep the other out has been leaning on finishing, goalkeeping or weak opponents to look solid. Monaco lead Ligue 1 by turning a handful of transitions into goals while conceding a steady flow of chances. Feyenoord have barely given anything away in the league, but only against weaker sides, and they face the league leaders with a rebuilt back line. In both games the chance numbers point to an open match.
Monaco v Toulouse first. Filipe Luis's Monaco are top, but their content is far behind their results: about 6.4 expected goals for and 6.5 against over five games, yet 8 scored and only 3 conceded. Against PSG and Marseille they gave up the ball, sat deep and hit on the break, with Hradecky saving them at the back. Toulouse under Askou are the opposite: a heavy pressing side that creates about 2.2 expected goals a game, and they did it against Lyon and Lille, not minnows. They also leak behind the press: Brest had 27 shots against them and Le Havre created plenty.
The key duel is Toulouse's press, with Jorgensen feeding Tengstedt, against Monaco's build-up through Camara and Zakaria. If Toulouse win the ball high, they get volume. If Monaco play past it, Coulibaly, Idumbo and Golovin run into the space behind Toulouse's full-backs. Monaco are only without Brunner, and Balogun is fit for the bench, which adds a finisher for the counter late on.
Whoever scores first, the game should stay open. If Monaco lead and drop deep, Toulouse throw men forward and keep creating while Monaco keep breaking. If Toulouse lead, Monaco have to come out and attack a press that leaves gaps.
In Rotterdam, Feyenoord's league numbers under Van Bronckhorst look airtight, but they came from routs of Utrecht and Zwolle. They still drew twice at home after conceding almost nothing, and in their one real test, at Barcelona, they were beaten 5-1. AZ are the strongest attack they have met: 18 goals in seven games, and they have scored in nine of their last ten. Feyenoord have lost both natural left-backs, and three local previews name three different centre-back partners for St Juste. That left side is where Oufkir, Dijkstra and Meerdink should go.
At the other end, AZ have conceded plenty of chances to every side that attacks them back, from Sunderland to Go Ahead Eagles and Heerenveen, and they are without their creator Kees Smit, which pushes them toward a more direct game. Feyenoord's front three and Read's deliveries from right-back have scored in every one of their last ten.
That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends in both matches: in each one the side that needs a clean sheet faces an attack its own numbers have not held back.
