Both of these NBA Cup rematches come straight after a lopsided opener, and in both cases the opener margin was built on things that do not carry over. Houston beat Dallas by 18 at home with a full rotation on a night Dallas gave the ball away 21 times. The Lakers beat Golden State by 22 on a night the Warriors made only 8 of 36 threes without Podziemski. Both games now move to the other building, and both rotations look different.
Dallas vs Houston. Houston's game is possessions: steals off active hands and second chances on the glass, with the scoring spread across Durant, Jabari Smith, Thompson and Sengun in the post. Dallas's game is Flagg attacking the rim and drawing fouls, Irving's shot-making and big home three-point volume. In the opener Dallas actually finished its twos well, 30 of 42. It lost on turnovers, on the boards and on made threes. In its other games Dallas gave the ball away 14, 18, 17 and 9 times, so 21 is a high outlier rather than its level.
The availability picture has moved toward Dallas. Sheppard is out for Houston, Smart is questionable after sitting at Milwaukee, and Sengun is questionable with a back strain after missing that game too, with a back-to-back against OKC to follow. Up to about seventy minutes of the opener's rotation could be missing. Houston keeps its edge on the glass with Capela and Tshiebwe against a Dallas frontcourt without Lively, and I give that full weight. But home court, a normal Dallas turnover count and the thinner Houston half court each take a real chunk off the opener's 18.
I expect Houston to start well off its steals, and Dallas to close the gap in the second half through its threes and Flagg at the line. That's why I'm siding with Dallas getting the points at home.
Golden State vs the Lakers. The Warriors' offence is three-point volume at about 40% over their recent games, with Curry and Lendeborg drawing free throws as the second route. The Lakers run through Doncic and Reaves, with Kessler punishing small lineups at the rim. Both sides turn the ball over a lot, so neither gets a clean possession edge. In the opener the Lakers shot a normal night while Golden State went roughly six or seven threes under its own level. Replay that game at normal Warriors shooting and it is close to a one-possession game in Los Angeles.
Doncic is back, and Kessler's interior edge is real against a frontcourt missing Porzingis and probably Santos. But both were already in the opener box. Podziemski, who missed the first meeting, is available, and Curry and Lendeborg are healthy. The Lakers' defence has given up 117 to 136 points in three of its last four games.
The Lakers' danger window is the middle quarters, which is where they won the opener. Golden State's runs come in the first and fourth quarters when Curry's shooting comes in bunches. At home, with a normal shooting night, I have the Warriors winning a close game. That's why I'm backing Golden State to win it outright.
