Lorient's compact defence and selective wing-back runs have brought results without a steady stream of high-quality chances. Benfica should have more of the ball against Alverca, whose direct receptions offer a way around the first press. Deportivo against Osasuna turns on whether the home receivers can escape an active opening wave of pressure.
Brest can connect Ajorque with Doumbia and the surrounding runners, giving Lorient's three centre-backs a second reception to track after the first duel. Lorient produced only one shot on target at Angers, and their Paris FC win also came from limited chance creation. That makes the contrast between results and repeated attacking quality relevant here.
Katseris and Fadiga remain out for Lorient, while Chardonnet's absence is already part of Brest's recent defensive setup. Sylla and the Tousart-Lloris pairing are established roles, with media previews expecting continuity. I expect the next pass after the central duel, and the options available after the interval, to matter more than the clean-sheet sequence. That's why I'm siding with Brest to avoid defeat.
Benfica's Prestianni-Pavlidis connection and the wider attacking alternatives can move Alverca's outside defenders away from the centre. Alverca retain a contrasting route through Mendes' direct distribution, Spencer's forward passing and their established front three. Their attacking content against Famalicao showed that those outlets can lead to close-range opportunities without long spells of possession.
Baseya's suspension changes a starting centre-back, with Bojang having already entered early in the last league match. Vidigal was a reserve attacker, and Mendes was already the starting goalkeeper; the absence list therefore does not amount to a newly dismantled attack and goalkeeping unit. Duran's disciplinary status remains unresolved after his substantial cup appearance, so I have not treated him as a missing Benfica option.
Benfica should keep testing the seam beside the wing-back, while Alverca seek direct receptions and space behind the advancing full-backs. The visitors retain enough independent supply to contest the margin. That's why I'm siding with Alverca to stay within reach.
Deportivo's Amatucci-Soriano-Yeremay connections give them a route beyond Osasuna's first pressure. Their last league performance at Atletico produced ten shots inside the box, with good opportunities in both halves. Osasuna's last away league outing began positively but lost momentum, making the space behind their advancing pressure a meaningful matchup.
Osasuna's official travelling squad excludes Oroz, Herrando and Del Castillo. Deportivo's injured group remains broadly unchanged, and the assessment uses Nsongo and the current receivers without an Aubameyang return. Both sides rotated in the cup, preserving several principal league attackers.
I expect Osasuna to press early and Deportivo to seek the receiver just beyond that first wave. The home side's retained box-entry structure gives it the stronger case once those escapes develop. That's why I'm siding with Deportivo in a close contest.
