Two home sides that keep the ball meet visitors who wait to break. Como and Betis both build their games on possession and creators between the lines. Manchester United and Feyenoord both carry a real counter threat, but against sides like these their chance creation has recently been thin.
At Como, Fabregas' side have had more of the ball in every recent match with data, led by Nico Paz and Baturina behind Douvikas. United's poor run is about creation, not bad luck: they were out-chanced at Leeds, at Atletico and at home to Spurs, and that started before the latest injuries. Now their absences hit the exact units that have to stand up to Como's passing. With Yoro suspended and Martinez out, they field a first-time centre-back pair with a rusty De Ligt, and there is no Mainoo or Ugarte in the pivot. Como have their own problems: only fifteen fit players, no Kean or Diao, and a waterlogged pitch that slows short passing. United's counter through Fernandes, Mbeumo and Amad is real. Still, Como's way of playing does not depend on the missing forwards. That's why I'm siding with Como, with the scrappy, rain-soaked draw covered.
In Seville, Betis field the same Champions League side that outplayed Porto, with Roca back at the base of midfield. Their clearest route is Antony against Feyenoord's makeshift left side, where Marmol, a centre-back by profile, has been filling in. Feyenoord press and dominate weaker Dutch sides, but against possession teams they drop deep: they created very little at Barcelona and at home to Como, and won that Como game on finishing and a deflection. Their seven absentees were already out during the winning run, so that list changes nothing here.
Feyenoord should still find a goal through Read and Hadj Moussa breaking behind Betis' attacking left-back, and Valles has been shaky in goal. But Betis' territory and Antony's flank should produce more. That's why I'm siding with Betis to win at home.
