Two big Saturday fixtures where the reputation and the content point in different directions. At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea's home results have run well ahead of the chances they actually create and concede, while Tottenham's away content has been better than their results. In Dortmund, Frankfurt's open-game record meets a home side that hasn't let anyone play an open game against it all season. In both, the shape of the match matters more than the headline numbers.
Chelsea vs Tottenham. In all three home games with chance data under Alonso, Chelsea conceded more expected goals than they created; the big scorelines came from finishing far above the chances. Spurs out-created Manchester United at Old Trafford and pushed Liverpool hard away, and they hold the ball more than almost anyone. The key matchup is Spurs' press against Chelsea's build-up: Chelsea start a 21-year-old goalkeeper in place of Martinez, and with Chavarria out their left side is improvised, right where Kudus attacks. Heavy rain and strong wind are forecast, which adds errors to a game Chelsea need to control. Spurs miss Bentancur and Bergvall in midfield, and Chelsea's fast starts can force them open, so this is not one-way. But Spurs only need a point, Porro and Robertson are back for width, and a scrappy draw suits them. I'm siding with Tottenham not to lose.
Dortmund vs Frankfurt. Dortmund's back three of Gadou, Anton and Schlotterbeck, with Kobel behind them, has held every recent opponent to modest chances, and they haven't conceded three in twenty matches. Their first halves are slow and careful, with very little created before the break in most recorded games, which takes a big chunk of the clock out of any shootout. Frankfurt arrive rested and at full strength, and their transitions through Doan and Burkardt are real, but their high-scoring games came against opponents who let them run. The likely flow is a cagey first half, then Dortmund growing after the break with wide runs from Beier and Svensson and crosses for Guirassy against Frankfurt's leaky second-half defending. The scores that shape produces are one-goal or two-goal Dortmund wins or a low draw. I'm with a low-scoring game here.
