Cerezo Osaka against JEF Chiba is two sides that have forgotten how to win, and they try to create in almost opposite ways. Cerezo are six league games without a win, Chiba five, and Chiba still have no away win this season. Football LAB's chance-building numbers have Chiba first in J1 for winning the ball back and Cerezo 18th, while Cerezo sit 9th for passing and Chiba 19th for finishing. One team wants to build, the other wants to take it off them and go.
That puts a lot on Shunta Tanaka, the player Football LAB names as the one who builds Cerezo's attack, and who has started every league game. If the build-up gets through him cleanly, Chiba's main weapon barely gets used. If Chiba catch him, short counters are where their style index outscores Cerezo's (55 against 44), and that's the one route where a side ranked 19th for finishing gets its easiest looks.
Home ground has been Cerezo's anchor: three wins, two draws and one defeat at Hanasaka, conceding 0.8 a game, against 2.4 a game on the road. Chiba concede 2.5 a game away from home. With splits like that, the first goal carries extra weight. Cerezo went behind at Nagoya before Pablo Sabbag pulled them level, and a home side on a six-game winless run that goes behind again starts playing with that run on its shoulders.
Chiba do arrive with something to hold on to. They scored twice at Urawa through Nduka and Tsukui, and Nduka, on loan from Vissel Kobe, said the performances are clearly improving but they keep dropping points on small details. The two clubs haven't met since 2016. Does Tanaka get enough time on the ball to make this Cerezo's kind of game, or does Chiba's pressing finally turn into goals?
