Two different games, both with a shape that points to narrow, open football rather than a clean one-sided result. In the basketball game the leader of the table wins through three-point volume and a tight defence, not through dominance. In the football game both back lines are thinner than usual and both attacks keep creating shots.
Goyang Sono vs Seoul Thunders: Seoul comes in unbeaten, but the streak is built on close finishes. Four of the last eight wins were by five points or fewer, including an 82-81 win at Sono earlier this month where Seoul took 50 threes. Sono is 4-5, scores about 89 and concedes about 88, and has covered the spread at this size in only four of its last ten, while Seoul has done it in eight of ten. The two imports, Kanter for Seoul and O'Bryant for Sono, decide the paint, but Seoul's shooting volume keeps it within a possession or two.
Seoul rested about five days against four for Sono, so there is no fatigue edge for the home side. I have no confirmed absence for either team, so I rely on the game shape only. That's why I'm siding with Seoul Thunders to stay close.
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC: Brisbane conceded in eight of its last ten and scored in nine; Auckland scored in eight and conceded in eight. Brisbane's last game was territorially strong, with 14 shots and 6 on target, and Auckland regularly puts four to six shots on target. Brisbane is without defender Valkanis, who also missed its last match, and Auckland is without Calver, Howieson and Middleton, so both defensive lines are thinner.
I expect an open game with chances both ways, and neither side has kept clean sheets reliably, only two in ten each. That's why I'm backing both teams to find the net.
