Both of these games are decided in the frontcourt. Atlanta has been playing without two of its bigs all season, and it loses whenever a sized team leans on the glass. Sacramento has no centre behind Sabonis, and every opponent so far has punished the minutes he sits. Each matchup brings exactly the kind of frontcourt that can exploit those holes.
Atlanta builds its game on guards and wings: McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Dort, Wiggins and the rookie Flemings. That means heavy three-point volume and pressure on the ball. With Veesaar and Gueye out, Okongwu is the only real centre, Landale backs him up, and Jalen Johnson has been playing 35 to 36 minutes at power forward. The two sized teams that went straight at that group, Houston on the road and Miami, won the glass 52-35 and 52-40 and also won the free-throw line. After the Miami loss, Snyder pointed to the size of their frontline.
Cleveland brings the same two-big shape with Mobley and Allen starting next to Harden, Mitchell and Watson, and it gets to the line a lot. Atlanta's best weapon is turnover pressure, but Cleveland has cleaned up its ball security to 12 and 13 giveaways over its last two games, and it forces plenty of turnovers itself. Atlanta is on its third game in four nights, and that falls hardest on its thin centre spot. I expect Cleveland to control the glass in the minutes its two bigs share, and that's why I'm siding with Cleveland on the road.
In New Orleans, the Kings have lost the rebounding battle in all four games and allowed 120 points or more every time. Cardwell and Raynaud are out, so when Sabonis rests, nobody is left to protect the rim. Zion is the right player to attack that, after scoring 25 in the paint and at the line last time out, and Queen pulled down 12 rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench.
The Pelicans are without Poole and Missi and are on the second night of a back-to-back, but that thin rotation was already on show in their last game. Their hands in passing lanes also meet a Kings backcourt that gives the ball away 14 to 17 times a game. The Kings' cold shooting matters less against a team that rarely shoots threes, so this one should come down to possessions and paint touches. I'm backing New Orleans to get its first win, without claiming a big margin.
