Three stronger sides meet opponents whose way of playing feeds their main strengths. Leipzig at home are a different team from Leipzig away, and Elversberg's brave build-up runs straight into their counter-press. Manchester City's away games at good sides have been about control and clean sheets, and Villa's home attack against good teams has been thin. Wolves keep out-creating visitors at Molineux, and Watford's away attack has barely shown up all autumn.
Leipzig under Demichelis are four from four at home, with 15 scored and none conceded, creating between 2.1 and 4.0 expected goals every time. The closest comparison came three days after a heavy Champions League defeat at Como, when a rotated side still beat HSV 5-0. Elversberg like the ball, but away at Union and Schalke they created almost nothing, and they give up close to 18 shots a game. Their build-up through Keidel meets Leipzig's press in midfield, and Nusa down the left attacks a right side that Gyamerah has only just returned to. Nkunku is a doubt, which costs Leipzig some finishing between the lines, but the press and the width are still there. That's why I'm siding with Leipzig.
At Villa Park, Villa's home wins came in Europe. In the league they lost to Arsenal and Forest, creating very little in both. Onana is out, Wan-Bissaka and Ruggeri are missing at full-back, Manzambi is a doubt, and Villa have had a day less rest after their midweek game. Doku against Cash on Villa's right side is City's clearest route, with Foden and Cherki working the half-spaces against a two-man screen. At Manchester United and Liverpool, City controlled the game and did not concede. Villa's mid-block, the forecast wind and rain, and their counters through Jackson make a draw a real outcome, so my position on City is one that survives it. I'm with Manchester City.
Wolves had more of the chances than every home league visitor I have data for, and they kept creating after Jimenez and Rodrigo Gomes went out, with eight shots on target at Burnley. The problem is finishing, which is why this is about the result and not a big margin. Watford have scored once in four away games and made very little at Bristol City despite having most of the ball. Without Bove, their build-up through midfield is more predictable, which suits Wolves' press. Lopez, James and Bellegarde arriving from deep do not need a number nine to score, and the corner count adds a second route. That's why I'm siding with Wolves at home.
