Two matches where the favourite's margin is the real question. Benfica arrive in the Azores with volume and a deep bench, but Santa Clara's home block has not been beaten heavily in a long time. In Baghdad, Pakhtakor are the stronger side at this level while Al Quwa Al Jawiya lean on the crowd and a thin attack. Both games look tighter than the names suggest.
Santa Clara v Benfica. Santa Clara sit in a compact mid-block and counter through Vinicius Lopes and Brenner. In their last 20 games they have not lost by three or more, and no league opponent in our data got past about one expected goal against them. Benfica average close to 19 shots a game, but their bigger wins came when opponents opened up or collapsed late, against Omonia, Moreirense and Maritimo. Away at organised sides like Milan and Porto they produced under one expected goal.
The key duel is Benfica's wide play, with Prestianni, Schjelderup and the full-backs overlapping, against Santa Clara's full-backs. Santa Clara lose Dje Tavares to suspension in midfield, which matters for the last half hour. Benfica come in on four days' rest after a European trip, and the Benfica coach himself called the pitch and the weather difficult. I expect Benfica on the ball, 0-0 or 0-1 at the break, and a one- or two-goal Benfica win as the most natural ending. That's why I'm siding with Santa Clara to stay within reach.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Pakhtakor. Pakhtakor drew with both Saudi sides in this competition and outshot Al Qadsiah 19 to 15. Al Quwa were outshot 7 to 19 at home by Al Ain and have scored five goals in five games under their coach. Pakhtakor have not lost away in 20 games, and their bench forwards keep scoring late, which suits a game against a home side that has to chase.
The home side's best spell should be the first 25 minutes, with crowd energy and set pieces. After that, Pakhtakor's midfield should own more of the ball and the chance count. Draws are a real part of this picture: Pakhtakor let leads slip against Al Ahli and Neftchi. So I'm backing Pakhtakor in a way that is protected if it ends level.
