This match comes down to which defensive hole costs more. Atalanta arrive with one fit senior centre-back, against the Ajax side that produces more shots, crosses and second balls than anyone they have faced. Atalanta's way in is Ajax's shaky build-up from the back. Both teams should score, but the structure leans toward the home side.
Ajax under Michel pin teams back. In their last ten games they averaged 21 shots and 62% possession, winning the ball high and collecting second balls from around six corners a game. Their weakness is their own passing out from the back: Hajduk scored twice from intercepted build-up passes, and Groningen scored from a lost ball. Atalanta under Sarri play a high line that already allowed plenty of chances when their defence was at full strength.
The decisive unit is Atalanta's centre-back pair. Hien, Kossounou, Scalvini and Kolasinac are all out, which leaves Kristensen next to either wingback Zappacosta, who Sarri admits lacks the physique for the role, or 20-year-old Obric, who gave away a penalty and was beaten for a goal at Milan. Ajax's crosses to Arokodare or Leonardo and their corner second balls go straight at that pair.
Atalanta still have technical attackers in Elmas, who is available in Europe, De Ketelaere and Scamacca, and they will try to press Ajax's build-up. But pressing high with a patched line behind them is a real risk for Sarri, and their bench has been padded with four under-23 players.
Expect Ajax to have territory in the first hour, with the game turning on whether their pressure breaks that makeshift pair before Atalanta catch them on a turnover. Ajax's turnover goals conceded came away from home, while at home they gave up little. That's why I'm siding with Ajax to win.
