[26-27 J2 League] Consadole Sapporo vs Shonan Bellmare: Match Preview Kick-off: October 31, 04:00 UTC
There is a sizeable gap between 12th-placed Consadole Sapporo and 5th-placed Shonan Bellmare. But the key question is what each side can do when the score is 0-0, rather than where they sit in the table.
1. Match overview and team form
Coach Kenta Kawai has had Consadole Sapporo line up with five at the back when defending since the Iwaki FC match. They have since won four and lost one of their five league games, scoring six and conceding two. That is a marked change from the 11 goals they conceded in the five official matches before the switch. Still, their recent three-game winning run has not come from one-sided performances. Blaublitz Akita had 15 shots against them (Sakigake Shimpo, October 17), while against Kataller Toyama, the goalkeeper saved two second-half chances before Consadole Sapporo scored with their only shot on target. We should distinguish the effect of the defensive block from the goalkeeper's saves.
Consadole Sapporo have scored in all three of their recent matches after going into half-time at 0-0. Against Kataller Toyama, Vini Peixoto finished a pass from Ryota Aoki, who came on in the 60th minute (J.League match record, October 25). Both goals against Montedio Yamagata came from long-range shots in front of the defence after the opposition pushed forward (Tagma, October 21). Haruto Shirai and Nose remain injured, and their absences are already reflected in the current squad. No return dates have been announced. Ryota Aoki's role in supplying passes after coming on has become important to the attack.
Shonan Bellmare are unbeaten in eight league games, though five of those ended in draws. They had 20 shots against Albirex Niigata and 17 against Fujieda MYFC, but both matches finished 1-1. Soichiro Kozuki has said Shonan can be too precise in attack at 0-0, then push forward and take risks after conceding (Football Channel, October 29). There has been no update on forwards Oda and Watanabe since injury notices were issued. Kozuki and Taiyo Nishino, meanwhile, were involved in the equaliser and winner in the second half against Tochigi City FC. Both teams had six days off after their previous match and play again three days later. The high-scoring results in past meetings came before Consadole Sapporo adopted their current five-man defence, so they offer little insight into how this match will unfold.
2. Matchup analysis
The first battle is between Shonan Bellmare's attack and Consadole Sapporo's defensive line. Shonan push into the opposition half and take plenty of shots, but have struggled to turn that pressure into goals at 0-0. Consadole Sapporo do not necessarily prevent shots altogether; instead, all five defenders drop back together to limit danger in the penalty area. After facing Consadole Sapporo, Montedio Yamagata's coach also said his team had reached the opposition half but struggled to create dangerous shots (Tagma, October 21). If Shonan cannot play passes through the defensive lines, they could have plenty of possession while the 0-0 scoreline Consadole Sapporo want remains intact.
That defensive approach does have a weakness. According to the official J.League preview, every goal Consadole Sapporo have conceded since switching to five at the back has come from a set piece. Shonan have Shohei Takeda, who can deliver an accurate left-footed kick. Even if they cannot break through in open play, corners and free kicks give them a chance to take the lead. If Shonan score first, Consadole Sapporo will have to reduce their defensive numbers and push forward. In the only match since the switch in which they trailed at half-time, they lost 1-0.
The second battle is about substitutions in the second half and each team's response after conceding. Consadole Sapporo scored after Ryota Aoki came on and supplied a pass, while Shonan brought Kozuki on at half-time and used him in their comeback against Tochigi City FC. That comeback came in a match where the opposition had a player sent off in the 39th minute. If Consadole Sapporo lead after the midpoint of the second half, Shonan will need to find a way through the defensive lines or make up the deficit from a set piece. When Shonan commit more players forward, Consadole Sapporo may get another chance to shoot from in front of the defence, as they did against Montedio Yamagata.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market has made the home side a slight favourite, taking home advantage and Consadole Sapporo's three-game winning run into account. The winning run alone is not enough to support that rating. One reason we differ from the market is that Consadole Sapporo's season goal difference includes matches played before they switched to five at the back. Their current defensive approach directly matches Shonan Bellmare's difficulty finishing attacks at 0-0. Shonan's eight-game unbeaten league run is another sign that they are hard to beat, but if they concede in the second half, they will have less time to respond.
The key condition that could change our view is Shohei Takeda scoring first from a set piece. Consadole Sapporo would then have to change their defensive approach and attack. If that does not happen, we expect Shonan's shots to leave the score at 0-0 for a long time, before Consadole Sapporo score once through a second-half attacking substitution and hold on to win.
[Final picks · By market · Betman release] Full-time result: Home win. Shonan Bellmare's difficulty breaking down a five-man block at 0-0 and their lack of attacking options off the bench suit Consadole Sapporo's approach of scoring after the 60th minute. Handicap -1: Draw. Consadole Sapporo tend to score a single goal after the midpoint of the second half, while Shonan Bellmare have kept the scoreline close even when trailing at half-time. Under/Over 2.5: Under. Both teams have limited routes to scoring in the first half, and goals are concentrated in specific second-half periods and from set pieces, making it difficult to reach three goals in total.
