Lincoln's direct deliveries make the first clearance only the start of the defensive task. Birmingham have useful wide combinations, but their recent defensive results have included important goalkeeper interventions. At Stamford Bridge, the contest centres on Chelsea's surviving combinations around the box and United's ability to make a clean first pass.
Coubiș can send Lincoln beyond the midfield contest, Ladefoged occupies the central defenders, and House and Jefferies attack the next contact. Their Burnley goals came through throws, recycled balls and a cross to a moving receiver. Birmingham's Cardiff performance showed that their established central pair can still be exposed once an opponent reaches those positions.
Darikwa remains out and Bradley's injury is reported rather than officially resolved; Hamer is available again after suspension. Birmingham's Paik and Leonard were already missing during their successful October games, so their absences do not erase Iwata's supply to Millar. I expect Lincoln to keep returning the game to direct duels and follow-up attacks. That gives me enough reason to side with Lincoln to avoid defeat.
Chelsea retain Palmer, Henderson, Neto and Rogers around United's midfield screen. Palmer and Henderson have connected with arriving scorers, while United have recently conceded after a lost first pass, an untracked receiver and a failed recovery. Those are several distinct openings for the home attack.
Joao Pedro's absence removes an important forward, and Lacroix's cup injury changes the defensive unit. Caicedo is available after his cup substitution, while Palmer returns after serving his suspension without a cup workload. Mainoo's reported travel remains a possible United option, rather than an absence assumed in Chelsea's favour. I expect Chelsea to seek early combinations and use the wide runners around Palmer, with the bench becoming more influential after the interval. The retained attacking links are why I'm siding with Chelsea.
