Two Efeler Ligi home sides are closer to their visitors than reputation suggests. Ziraat are still the better team in Alanya, but the side playing lately is not the one that swept Fenerbahce. Altekma travel to Gaziantep without a clean league win to their name. In both matches the gap looks smaller on the court than it does on paper.
In Alanya, the story is who is missing. Ishikawa led Ziraat with 16 points in that 3-0 at Fenerbahce on 17 October, and he has not been in the squad for a match since, nor has Nimir. Without Ishikawa, Ziraat have gone 1-3, 3-2 and 3-1, dropping six sets, including sets at home to Altekma and Gaziantep lost to block and serve pressure.
Ziraat still have plenty that works. Clevenot's serve, ace runs and the middles explain why they keep winning. What those routes have not done is produce a clean match.
The deciding matchup is Alanya's serve against that patched reception. Alanya won the ace count 5-3 at Fenerbahce and tied the blocks 6-6, and they beat Istanbul Genclik at home on serve and block organisation. Their attack is the weak point, but one good spell with the crowd behind them does not need a whole match of it.
The load helps too. Ziraat played 119 minutes in their last match and now travel for a fourth league match in 15 days. Alanya played 31 minutes fewer and have a free week after this. I expect Ziraat to win more often than not, most likely in four, with the first set the most open. That's why I'm siding with Alanya to take something from the champions.
In Gaziantep, the head-to-head looks one-sided, but it very likely predates the current attack. French opposite Sam Jeanlys was being called a new transfer on 24 October, and the same six started both league matches. They took three of nine sets against Fenerbahce at home and Ziraat away, with Jeanlys, Yucel and Gedik sharing the scoring: 25, 18 and 16 against Fenerbahce.
Altekma's own league content is less convincing than their position. They have conceded at least two sets in all three league matches, and on their latest evidence the block was the problem, with one report showing them heavily out-blocked by Halkbank. Their serve can take any set on its own, and a 25-9 and a 25-14 show that, but their sets swing hard both ways.
That sets up the key matchup: Jeanlys and the high ball against a thin Altekma block, with two other outlets stopping them from loading up on him. Buculjevic and Ewert have the longer connection and it should show in tight finishes, while Gaziantep's Ivanov link has only weeks behind it.
I expect a balanced start, wide scorelines when a server gets going, and a third and fourth set that decide everything. That's why I'm siding with Gaziantep to take this deep.
