[2026-27 Italian Serie A] AC Monza vs SSC Napoli Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 28, 19:45 UTC
AC Monza and SSC Napoli meet at the Brianteo Stadium in Serie A round 9. Monza need to build a cushion over the relegation zone, while Napoli are looking to make up for a disappointing start to the season. Both teams have ways to score, but Monza have conceded again after pushing forward from a deficit, and Napoli have let opponents back into games after taking the lead.
1. Match overview and team form
After eight matches, Monza sit 15th with 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses for 7 points. They are only 3 points clear of the three teams immediately below them. Napoli are 10th with 11 points from 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. On October 25, TuttoMercatoWeb (TMW) described Napoli’s 11-point tally as the club’s worst start in 16 years. Monza have a chance to widen the gap over the teams below them, while Napoli travel looking to end a two-match winless run in the league.
Serie A after 8 matches Points: AC Monza 7 / SSC Napoli 11 Goals for and against: AC Monza 15 and 18 / SSC Napoli 13 and 10 Expected goals and expected goals against: AC Monza 13.43 and 10.41 / SSC Napoli 15.08 and 10.51
Monza’s attack has been better than their position suggests. They have scored in all 8 league matches, and have scored at least 2 goals in each of their 4 competitive home games this season. Their home wins, though, came against Avellino in the Coppa Italia and Sassuolo and Cagliari in the league. This is their first home game this season against a side with Napoli’s calibre of squad. Even in the 4-0 win over Cagliari, Monza’s expected goals of 2.06 were lower than the opposition’s 2.37. They turned the visitors’ turnovers into goals quickly, while goalkeeper Noel Törnqvist made key saves to help create a big winning margin.
Monza’s defensive record makes it hard to back them for a win on home attack alone. Their expected goals against in the league is 10.41, but they have actually conceded 18. According to tuttonapoli.net on October 27, the 6 goals they have conceded from outside the penalty area are the most in the league, level with Parma. Against Lecce, they conceded from headers off both of the first two corners inside the opening 10 minutes. Against Torino and Lazio, poor handling of the ball in their own half led to goals. The gap between their expected and actual goals conceded has narrowed recently, but that does not answer whether they can deal with Napoli’s shots and set pieces.
Napoli’s expected goals in the league are 15.08, higher than their actual tally of 13. Away to Venezia, they had 29 shots and 2.44 expected goals but lost 1-0. They scored 3 in their latest match against Roma and had scored 4 against Bodø/Glimt in the game before that. Napoli have scored 11 goals in their last 5 competitive matches, up from 5 in the previous 5. Scott McTominay’s 4 goals this season have all come against Roma and Bodø/Glimt, part of that recent uptick.
More goals have not translated into more points for Napoli. Against Roma, they led 2-0 and 3-2 before drawing 3-3. Two of the goals they conceded came from a corner scramble and a cross from wide. Match footage from vocegiallorossa.it on October 24 showed all 11 Napoli players inside their own penalty area in the 88th minute against Roma. TuttoMercatoWeb noted that Napoli dropped their defensive line too deep whenever they took the lead. Even with plenty of players back, they could not deal with crosses and second balls. Villarreal’s equaliser came after a back-pass was intercepted, so the recent goals conceded cannot all be explained by the same defensive approach.
Napoli’s back line will also look different for this match. Benoît Badiashile, who started in central defence against Roma, is out injured, as are Alessandro Buongiorno and full-back Leonardo Spinazzola. Amir Rrahmani has returned to training after a fever, but his availability is uncertain. If he cannot play, Luca Marianucci, who has not started a match this season, could partner Rafa Marín at centre-back. Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Mathías Olivera are expected to play at full-back, though reports say Di Lorenzo could be rested. There are still question marks over the actual defensive pairing compared with the expected line-up.
Assistant coach Marco Landucci will take charge of Napoli in place of Massimiliano Allegri. Allegri received a two-match touchline ban after being sent off against Roma. Napoli’s trouble managing leads has also shown up in matches with Allegri on the bench, so we cannot attribute a second-half concession to his absence alone. Still, it will be Landucci’s job to adjust the defensive shape and substitutions when Monza change their attacking approach.
Monza will stick with Ivan Juric’s 3-4-2-1. Juric has promised an aggressive, pressing approach against Napoli and said he would make changes to the defence. Whether regular defender Eddy Kouadio starts is one uncertainty. He contested aerial balls on Birindelli’s corners and scored Monza’s opener against Cagliari. Midfielder Michael Folorunsho is not in the squad, but Foe Ondoa and Akinsanmiro have already started in central midfield in the last two matches.
Napoli have had the better of previous meetings. According to Opta figures cited by ForzaMonza.it on October 27, Napoli won 4, drew 1 and lost 1 of their 6 Serie A matches against Monza. Those were all played before Monza spent the 2025-26 season in Serie B. The coaches and key players have changed at both clubs since then. Napoli face Juventus, Porto and Lazio in succession after this match, while Monza travel to Bologna around 66 hours later. Both sides will have to consider the schedule when choosing their starting line-ups and making second-half substitutions.
2. Match-up analysis
The early question is where Monza can win the ball from Napoli’s first pass. Against Torino, Monza scored after Gustavo Varela intercepted a short back-pass. Napoli also conceded an equaliser against Villarreal after Matteo Politano’s back-pass was intercepted. If Napoli’s centre-back pairing changes, Monza may press high to cut down the time they have on the ball. If Napoli bring Stanislav Lobotka back into the starting line-up in front of the defence, he will be tasked with taking short passes from the centre-backs and helping them play through Monza’s press. His return alone, though, would not guarantee a more stable build-up.
That same press could put Monza at risk. When they push up, Napoli can play into the space between the wing-backs and the back three. In particular, after left wing-back Ricardo Mangas advances, Matteo Politano could receive the ball behind him on Napoli’s right. Politano set up two goals against Roma with a free-kick and a cross. If Monza send Mangas and an attacking midfielder forward to target Napoli’s right side, Politano will have to help defend. Which side can move the ball forward first will affect both Politano’s attacking position and Monza’s defensive workload.
Napoli are hard to contain by focusing on the centre-forward alone. Their 3 goals against Roma came from Frank Anguissa and McTominay. When Politano crosses from the right, McTominay can arrive in the box from deep to finish. If Monza press through Varela but the midfield and back three lose track of McTominay’s run, Napoli could get a shot away from the edge of the area. Monza’s record of conceding from long-range shots gives Napoli a reason to target that route. There are reports, though, that either McTominay or Kevin De Bruyne could be rested, so the starting line-up will shape Napoli’s early attacking threat.
At the other end, Monza’s wing-backs and set pieces will test Napoli’s defence. Birindelli’s corners led to the opener against Sassuolo and Monza’s comeback goal against Lazio. Mangas also pushes forward on the left to deliver crosses. If Napoli drop close to their own penalty area as they did against Roma when leading, Monza can cross from both flanks and use Varela and their defenders in the air. With Badiashile out, Napoli will have to deal with the first aerial challenge in the box and the loose ball that follows.
If Monza score first, a different contest begins. They have won 3 and drawn 1 of the 4 matches in which they led at half-time across their last 10 competitive games. Napoli could bring on McTominay or De Bruyne, who may be rested from the start, along with Lang, Giovane or Lucca. Monza lost the ball from a Foe Ondoa pass before conceding first against Torino, and also conceded against Lazio after losing possession in their own half. If Napoli add attackers after the break, Monza will have counterattacking chances, but they will also need to keep their first pass accurate.
A Napoli opener would not settle the match either. Juric made three changes at once to adjust Monza’s attack against Sassuolo and Lazio. If Napoli sit deep, those changes could create more crosses and corners for Monza. If Monza push forward too aggressively to find an equaliser, Napoli could send the ball to Politano and their second-half substitutes to look for another goal. Napoli tried to counter when Roma pushed forward, but conceded again and failed to hold their lead. As in that match, what matters here is how both teams maintain their defensive shape after the first goal.
3. Final verdict
Napoli have more ways to score first. Politano’s supply from the right, McTominay’s runs into the box, set pieces and shots from distance all connect with situations in which Monza have conceded. Monza have also scored at least 2 goals in every home game this season and can test Napoli’s changed defence with Varela’s pressing and Birindelli’s corners. Considering both attacks, we lean toward a game with multiple goals from both sides rather than a low-scoring finish.
The market clearly favours the away side, pointing to Napoli’s squad, their advantage in previous meetings and their league defensive record this season. Napoli’s attack is a valid reason for that view. But the previous meetings were played with different coaches and squads, and today’s defence, which has conceded 10 league goals, will be without Badiashile. The biggest difference from the market’s assessment is that Napoli will need to defend a lead with a new combination at the back. Monza have wing-back crosses and Birindelli’s corners to use in exactly that situation.
We expect Monza to respond with attacks down the flanks and set pieces if Napoli score first, and Napoli to bring on substitutes after the break if Monza take the lead. A draw with both teams scoring at least 2 goals looks the likeliest outcome. If Napoli keep their defensive line higher after taking the lead and control possession through Lobotka, they can limit Monza’s crossing threat and extend the scoreline.
